Three topics to discuss today. Canadian vs. US bonds, a warning on the S&P 500 chart, and a look at the US banking sector. Canadian vs. US bonds We’re bullish on US long bonds. Bonds can do well as inflation falls, allowing monetary policy to soften. But we’re not quite as hot on Canadian bonds on a relative performance basis. We have focused strictly on US bonds. We hold a position in the US TLT long bond ETF. Canadian bonds may not fare as well as US bonds going forward. Lots of debate around the “carbon tax” of late. Bottom line, whether rebates match the tax (or not) for ordinary ..read more

Thought its time to review the CDN banks again. Typically, I grab one of the best Canadian Bank ETF’s and analyze the technicals for you guys. But this time, I’m going to go through each of the bank charts separately. There’s only a few of them (8). More importantly, there really are some major differences in their chart patterns. So different that some are outright bullish, while others are outright avoid’s. First, we’ll start with the big-six. That is, TD, CIBC, Scotia, Royal, Bank of Montreal, and National. Then, we’ll do the two second tier banks Canadian Western and Laurentian. Lets get a ..read more

One of the many investment tools I present in my Online Trading Course is a sector rotation model. Like everything in that course, I designed the sector rotation model to be a simple, easy to understand tool for ordinary investors to uncover profitable trading ideas. Today, I will cover how the tool works and the current sectors it is pointing towards owning. I’ll also look at the charts of those sectors to give you some thoughts on the buy/sell target points. The point of this exercise is to teach you how to drive by looking forward, rather than by looking in your rear view mirror. Let’s get ..read more

The Magnificent Seven (MAG-7) stocks have been market leaders since early 2023. Actually, they’ve pretty much been to sole drivers behind the success in the SPX. Last year, most of these cowboys were riding in unison. Lately, not so much. A few may be falling off their horses. Lets take a look at the charts, and ponder on the significance of less magnificence. Performance less uniform amongst the Mag-7’s The Mag-7 stocks are comprised of MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA. Contrast n’ compare time again, kids. Let’s get at it. What the inconsistent performance by the Mag-7’s implies MAG ..read more

Is now the time to buy energy stocks? Today, I want to examine an interesting discrepancy when comparing the Canadian and US energy producer sector charts. From there, I want to strongly (!!!) recommend you watch my video interview with Lorne Gunter on the Canadian energy industry & current climate policies. All investors exploring the energy trade should see that interview! I’ve attached a link at the bottom of this blog. Crude oil First, lets start with crude oil itself. Here’s the longer termed chart since 1999. Many of you old dogs out there (like me) will remember the heady “peak oil ..read more

Today, we are going to take a high-level view of sectors to watch for upside moves. As far as looking for protection from downside moves, you might want to watch my newest video on identifying the real “crash n’ burn” candidates before they erupt. It shows you how to identify an overvalued, overbought stock or sector. I feel that this is one of the more important videos I’ve published lately. It will give you tools to identify & avoid losses in high probability danger stocks. Here’s the link: How to Spot an Overbought Stock – ValueTrend Before we get started: Newsletter subscribers receive ..read more

Here are some of my neartermed market comments, mixed in with some quotes from sources I respect. Weekend reading for all us market analysis nerds! I say: better a rich nerd, than poor & cool. Read on: My thoughts on a neartermed rally: Sure, a rally from here makes sense (three or four-day rallies often follow short-seller victory cheers, aka covering), but the technical damage is real and probably long-lasting. Note the lower low in August – below. The SPX still looks bearish from an intermediate perspective, and 4200, or even 3800 on the SPX look feasible. The neartermed timing system ..read more

OK, you guys know of my bullish stance on hard assets. I also like certain value stocks. For example, commodities and certain international markets when the markets complete my predicted pullback. Stay tuned to this blog for more on that. But today, I’d like to examine my “avoid” list – aka sectors not attractive in my eyes. These sectors are NOT on my buy list! 4 sectors to avoid in your portfolio! Automotive: In the news… BIDEN SAYS HE AGREES UAW SHOULD GET A 40% INCREASE  – TELLS STRIKING AUTO WORKERS TO ‘STICK WITH IT’ Elon Musk on this headline: “A 40% raise with a 32 hour workweek w ..read more

Here are three questions I’d like to address. Today we will consider how the broad US market, the Canadian oil producers sector, and the Chinese markets might play out over the next month or two. Each of these discussions will cover potential risks, and potential upsides. We’ll cover what I’d like to see before that reward side really shows its face. Lets get at it. 1. Where will the SPX go in the near-term? I recently wrote a blog suggesting my targets for the SPX, and the potential timing of a the current correction ending.  Read that blog, Then, take a look at the chart below & ans ..read more

The technology sector, driven by the AI hype since early this year, has taken a step back over the past month. Given the hope of a softer Fed policy now, is there opportunity in the sector? Should we be buying technology stocks now that they have retreated in price? The relative performance chart below (20 days of trading) shows us how markets have rotated out of the tech sector and the discretionary sector (which contain some of the old school tech stocks). My rule in sector rotation (please see my online course) to wait for a bearish rotation (comparative relative strength shift) to end, and ..read more