Smart Politics
522 FOLLOWERS
Smart Politics is a non-partisan political news site.Smart Politics publishes original, data-driven reporting and analysis of public policy, campaigns, and elections for Minnesota, Upper Midwestern, and national politics.
Smart Politics
5d ago
The state had hosted uncontested Democratic and Republican primaries for the office in just two previous cycles
Down the ballot in Pennsylvania’s primary election last Tuesday, voters also had the task of formally nominating candidates in the state’s U.S. Senate contest.
Neither three-term Democratic incumbent Bob Casey nor former GOP investment executive David McCormick faced any opposition in their respective contests.
The 2024 primary was just the third time out of 41 primaries since 1914 in which both major parties hosted uncontested primaries for the office.
This comes on the heels of th ..read more
Smart Politics
1w ago
Four withdrawn presidential candidates since 2000 received a larger percentage of the state’s presidential primary vote than Haley did on Tuesday
As documented a month ago on this site, it is not out of the ordinary for withdrawn presidential candidates to continue to receive the support of a substantial percentage of primary voters – such candidates have attracted the votes of at least one in six voters more than 50 times since the 1980 cycle.
Nikki Haley did so for a fourth time since her March 6th exit from the 2024 GOP nomination race – this time in Pennsylvania, where she received 16.6 p ..read more
Smart Politics
1w ago
Kenosha’s Peter Barca hopes to join the more than one in 10 members of the U.S. House from Wisconsin who had gaps in service; Barca’s, however, would be a state record
The recent decision by Wisconsin Democrat Peter Barca to run for his old 1st CD seat puts him on a path to make history in the Badger State.
Barca served one term in the U.S. House of Representatives after a special election victory during the 103rd Congress (1993-1995) that was sandwiched in between representing the Kenosha-based 64th Assembly District (1985-1993, 2009-2019).
After the election of Tony Evers in 2018, Barca ser ..read more
Smart Politics
2w ago
The GOP path to taking control of the U.S. Senate got even clearer with Larry Hogan entering the Maryland U.S. Senate race this winter
More than two months after former two-term Maryland Governor Larry Hogan filed his paperwork as a candidate for the U.S. Senate, a new survey by the Baltimore Sun finds he still holds a double-digit lead against each of his likely Democratic opponents (three-term U.S. Representative David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks).
Hogan’s lingering popularity among the electorate should not be surprising on its face – he won reelection by 1 ..read more
Smart Politics
3w ago
Reliably Republican strongholds are much more widespread than those on the Democratic side
Last week Smart Politics highlighted states with the largest uninterrupted Democratic winning streaks in statewide elections.
Today, the lens turns on the nation’s other major political party – where the GOP has made far greater and deeper inroads in states across the country by this measure.
When it comes to electoral winning streaks, the list starts and ends with a state that has thus far been the fool’s gold of the Democratic Party for the better part of a decade – Texas.
Texas Republican nominees ha ..read more
Smart Politics
1M ago
Which streaks are most likely to come to a halt in November?
The conventional wisdom heading into the 2024 election is that the outcome of the presidential race will hinge on approximately a half-dozen battleground states. Almost all of the other states, it is posited, will reliably vote for the Democratic or Republican nominee.
This is not an unreasonable supposition as red states are generally getting redder and blue states are getting bluer.
Over the next two reports, Smart Politics will highlight those states with the largest (and longest) partisan winning streaks across all offices with ..read more
Smart Politics
1M ago
At least one in six Republican primary voters have backed Haley in three states since her withdrawal from the race
A refrain heard across many media outlets during the contested Republican presidential primary contests through Super Tuesday was pointing out the percentage of GOP voters who were not backing Donald Trump even as he cruised to victories in almost every contest.
Whether his opponents were winning 20, 30, or 40 percent, the question often posed was how many of these Republican primary voters (particularly in closed primaries) would still not vote for Trump in November’s general el ..read more
Smart Politics
1M ago
Michigan Republicans hope to leverage the state’s open seat to end a nine-cycle losing streak in the chamber
With one month until the filing deadline for primary ballot access in Michigan’s 2024 U.S. Senate race (April 23rd), the state is almost certain to shatter its record for the most candidates vying for the Republican Party nomination.
While some of the dozen announced candidates may yet withdraw from the race before the early August primary, a new party record will be set if even half remain in the race.
Among the candidates running to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow ..read more
Smart Politics
1M ago
Will the 2024 Republican nominee receive less than 40 percent of the vote for the fourth time in party history?
As Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown awaits his opponent to emerge from next Tuesday’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, he is positioned as a slight favorite at best to retain his seat as the seven-plus month march to the general election begins in the reddish Buckeye State.
Brown is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle – the ninth time a Democrat has run without an opposing candidate for the office in party history joining Senator Robert Bulkley ..read more
Smart Politics
1M ago
Cruz received more support than any other major party candidate in a contested Texas U.S. Senate primary
As Democrats brace to hold multiple vulnerable seats in an attempt to maintain their fragile majority in the U.S. Senate, they eye Ted Cruz’s seat in the state of Texas as one of the few conceivable 2024 pick-up opportunities for the party.
For nearly a decade, Texas has made the list of possible Democratic wins in various statewide elections, but the party always comes up short – losing 166 partisan statewide contests in a row dating back to 1996.
While Senator Cruz only narrowly defeated ..read more