What if the electoral survey polls were wrong?
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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3d ago
The trend of recent elections does not support the widespread prediction of Donald Trump’s victory in November. The bias in election forecasts may result from the over-polling of Trump’s voters in electoral surveys. Let us look, first, at recent elections. The electoral cycle of special, state, and local elections from early 2023 has been seen as a success for the Democrats. Candidates from the Democratic party won in three of the four special elections for the federal House of Representatives. They also increased their representation in two state legislatures, made a net gain of f ..read more
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The Russian enclaves in Ukraine
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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3w ago
At the end of January, the National Security Archive declassified new documents from thirty years ago that show how the president of the United States, Bill Clinton, was deceiving the president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, about the expansion of NATO towards ex-communist countries. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia had accepted and supported a Partnership for a United Europe that would include both NATO countries and former members of the Warsaw Pact. Clinton offered the compromise of accepting Russia in the Group of 7, which became the Group of 8, and in other multilateral ..read more
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2024 USA democracy in peril - A summary of my book: why and how?
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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3M ago
 Quotes from Josep Colomer: Constitutional Polarization. A Critical Review of the U.S. Political System Routledge, 2023. A collection of 6 posts.     1 - Why a Federation?   The aim of the Convention in Philadelphia was not to experiment with democracy in a large territory, but to create a “stronger”, “firmer” government able to defend the new independent states from the British and other foreign troops still over the continent. The priority was to create a standing army, to pay the debt for the War for Independence, and to introduce the subsequent federal taxes. The b ..read more
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My recent Kissinger
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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4M ago
             Previously posted on May 10/22 and Jan 30/23              Kissinger in Washington, May 7, 2022 Henry Kissinger will be one hundred years old in a few weeks and has published five books since he turned ninety. Along with President Nixon, he futilely prolonged and escalated the Vietnam War for four years when defeat was already inevitable. But he also received the Nobel Peace Prize precisely for negotiating the ceasefire for that same war.      His doctrine also has these two faces ..read more
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Book Talk Video - Constitutional Polarization. A Critical Review of the U.S. Political System
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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4M ago
  CLICK:  https://youtu.be/WmEu6PEUHW0?t=11 ..read more
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Israel-Gaza, a foreign conflict for internal crises
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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4M ago
Both the Jewish and Muslim countries, including Israel and Palestine, live in the Middle Ages, as they define the community for a religious allegiance. Like the kingdoms and empires of several centuries ago, they live in permanent hostility, mutual condemnation, and recurrent wars for the annihilation of the enemy. The Abraham Accords in 2020 tried, once again, to make peaceful coexistence viable. A few Arab and Muslim countries, Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan have recently recognized the state of Israel, following the example of former peace treaties signed by Egypt and Jordan, moving t ..read more
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The US Republicans are isolationists only when they are not in the White House
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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4M ago
My letter to The Economist: Republicans’ isolationism Your review of how the Republicans in the US have moved back and forth between isolationism and internationalism is informative and interesting (Losing their religion”, October 28, 2023). However, I think you underestimate the importance of whether the party is in the presidency or in the opposition to explain its wavering foreign policy choice. As for your data since World War I, when the Democrats were in the White House and favored internationalist policies, especially in periods of foreign agitation and major conflicts, such as with pr ..read more
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Why Is Congress So Polarized? It’s the Institutions
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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6M ago
https://www.fairobserver.com/world-news/us-news/why-is-congress-so-polarized-its-the-institutions/   Why Is Congress So Polarized?  It’s the Institutions  Political polarization has reached the point that dissident Republicans have fired their own Speaker. How did the political scene get this bad? The explanation lies in a flawed electoral structure that incentivizes extreme positions.  The issue was about shutting down the government. It ended up shutting down Congress. The recent removal of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, reflects ..read more
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The uncertain future of the European Empire
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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6M ago
The uncertain future of the European Empire The European Union faces two paths that could lead to a dangerous fork in the road. On the one hand, the EU has increased its powers during the Great Recession and the pandemic. Specifically, it has increased public spending through the multiannual budget and recovery programs, for the first time it has issued its own debt bonds, it has strengthened its surveillance of state finances, it has established common rules on banking, and is trying to control the external borders.  On the other hand, after ten years without accepting new members and B ..read more
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New Book: A Critical Review of the U.S. Political System
JOSEP COLOMER'S BLOG
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8M ago
 Book CLICK: Constitutional Polarization A Critical Review of the U.S. Political System                by Josep M. Colomer ABSTRACT In this book, Josep M. Colomer argues, against much conventional wisdom, that political polarization is embedded in the constitutional design.   The book puts forth that sustained conflict and institutional gridlock are not mainly questions of character, personalities, or determined by socioeconomic or cultural inequalities. They are, above all, the result of the formula of separation ..read more
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