Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below. *** North Korea Russia used a North Korean Hwasong-11 missile to strike Kharkiv, Ukraine in January, according to U.N. sanctions monitors, further proof that Moscow helps Pyongyang skirt sanctions to supply arms for its invasion. This missile is one of at least nine such North Korean missiles used by Russia in combat, according to U.S. officials. Russia dealt a further blow to the internatio ..read more

Editor’s Note: This is the first part of a short series examining maritime geography and strategic challenges in specific bodies of water, ranging from the Arctic Ocean to the Gulf of Guinea and the South China Sea. The Arctic Ocean may be the world’s smallest but it looms large in the imagination. Remote and unique, the Arctic is, for some at least, the most romanticized ocean in the world. It has been fueling legends and ambitions for centuries, and continues to fuel new geopolitical myths today. Global dynamics, from climate change to the decline of American hegemony and technological revol ..read more

The Clements-Strauss Asia Policy Program hosted Xiaobing Li, professor of history and the Don Betz endowed chair in international studies at the University of Central Oklahoma, for a book talk on China’s New Navy: The Evolution of PLAN from the People’s Revolution to a 21st Century Cold War. Image: Ken Hodge The post The Evolution of China’s Navy appeared first on War on the Rocks ..read more

In 2022, Tyler Bowen wrote “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s Crisis of Nuclear Credibility” for War on the Rocks, in which he argued that nuclear weapons were required for NATO to deter Russia as conventional NATO forces were incapable of doing so. In response to continued Russian nuclear rhetoric and Polish President Duda’s comments on participation in NATO’s nuclear sharing program, we asked him to look back on the article. Read more below. Photo Credit: 1st Lt. Jonathan Carkhuff, Air Combat Command Public Affairs In your article “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s Crisis of ..read more

According to a well-known Jewish proverb, “It is not the mouse that is the thief, but the hole.” In other words, some of the problems we face (mice entering our home) are perhaps more a result of our own actions or lack thereof (plugging the holes in its walls), than of the malign intentions of others. What does this tell us about the security challenges Israel faces from Hizballah, the Lebanese militant group and Iranian proxy? It suggests that the best way to deal with threats such as those posed by this violent non-state actor (the “mouse”) might not be The post The Case for Averting War Be ..read more

Almost 10 years ago I penned a strategy article inspiring ad hominem attacks, the suggestion by former colleagues that I had written something akin to The Anarchist Cookbook, and otherwise causing “profound disappointment” and “alarm” in the defense community. My target at the time was the now classic formula for strategy as the sum of ends, ways, and means. I argued this tended to transform strategic thinking into a means-based (resource-based) planning exercise. My answer to this problem was to define strategy as a “theory of success,” in the hopes of drawing strategists’ attention to the jo ..read more

In recent months, resistance forces in Myanmar have been making major gains against the country’s military junta, capturing vast swaths of territory in strategic border regions. Then, last week, the military recaptured the key trading hub of Myawaddy on the border with Thailand, just two weeks after the rebels had taken it. We asked four experts to weigh in on the current status of the conflict and whether these resistance forces could actually topple the military regime. Read more below. *** Richard Horsey Senior Advisor on Myanmar Crisis Group There ar ..read more

Ryan sat down with three friends to talk about the war in Ukraine through the lens of a new edited volume on the topic. Enjoy this conversation with Andrea Kendall-Taylor (former CIA), Hal Brands, and Alexander Bick (former National Security Council staff), which surfaces some important disagreements and debates about the war and international order. Oh, and also buy War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World. Please note this was recorded shortly before the U.S. Congress passed the security supplemental, which included aid for Ukraine. Image: Ukrainian Ministry of ..read more

In March 2023, the Department of Defense released a report declaring, “In aggregate, the defense industry is financially healthy, and its financial health has improved over time.” In fact, few people would argue that — at least for those companies that beat the odds and survive the “valley of death” — defense contracting isn’t a lucrative business. But if the defense industrial base, and in particular America’s traditional primes, is so healthy, then why is the government spending so much money to get so little innovation into the hands of servicemembers? This is a puzzle that itself speaks to ..read more

The U.S. government somehow seems to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the impact of AI on cyber operations. On one hand, officials say AI will give the edge to cyber defense. For example, last year Army Cyber Command’s chief technology officer said, “Right now, the old adage is the advantage goes to the attacker. Today, I think with AI and machine learning, it starts to shift that paradigm to giving an advantage back over to the defender. It’s going to make it much harder for the offensive side.” On the other hand, the White House’s AI Executive Order is The post How Will AI Change Cyb ..read more