Before I get into it, I saw this yesterday and it made me legit lol: If that doesn’t sum up crypto Twitter I don’t know what does. Onward. Alts have been popping lately, and I can’t help but think it’s a game of hot potato. As mentioned yesterday, I don’t think sentiment is bad enough yet for us to call this the bottom of the crypto bear market. But the way alts have been acting, you can bet that more than a few people are feeling like this is the bottom. Take a look at some of these moves: These are just a few of dozens of examples I could post. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking shots at t ..read more

When markets go south it’s hard to tell when the bottom is in because fear is at such elevated levels. In hindsight, it’s obvious. Capitulation was everywhere and optimism was nowhere. Tops are no different. And the crypto markets have been going sideways for month, giving hope to rekt hodl’rs the world over that the bear market is over. Already this week your train-wreck, crypto “influencer” du jour is “relaunching” his AntWarz WhaleWarz competition to reinforce bad trading habits to bad traders. Justin Sun launched some completely scammy sounding airdrop/giveaway. I don’t know more than that ..read more

There’s been a fair bit of chatter lately in the crypto markets about open interest, largely because it’s reaching what traders consider to be extreme levels. For those unfamiliar, when I refer to open interest I’m referring to Bitfinex margin positioning. As of this writing Bitfinex $BTC open interest is 57% long and 43% short. $ETH open interest is 78.6% long and 21.4% short. Why open interest (might) matter The concern here, an argument presented by bears, is that bulls have become overzealous and we can’t possibly go higher with so many folks already positioned long. Jonny Moe broke this o ..read more

I read an interesting post about a company I’d never heard about gaining a foothold against Airbnb and the highly competitive travel & tourism industry today. The company is HomeToGo and was founded in Germany in 2014. The article details how they’ve managed to outmaneuver Airbnb’s SEO strategy. I found it interesting for a number of reasons. First, I had no idea Airbnb’s moat was so weak. I suppose they have brand recognition, but how much is that worth if another company starts cropping up in the SERPs more often? What, if any, implications could a competitor like this have on Airbnb’s s ..read more

I’ve been playing a lot of poker again lately. I was surprised to see that it’s been three years since I’ve played with any regularity. 1/2 no-limit holdem results Back in 2015 and and early 2016, before our first son was born, I was playing a fair bit of cards. In fact I logged 494 hours of play between 1/1/2015 and 1/31/2016. After that I played only once when I was in northern Michigan visiting family. Three years is a long time to not practice something, so I was unsure of how I’d play at first when starting up again. As you can see, I haven’t lost my poker playing skill. I’ve played thous ..read more

I’ve been looking for longer term macro plays when it comes to equities while still doing intraday stuff in FX land. One setup that’s really caught my eye over the last few weeks is gold. I tweeted this today: This $GLD chart is gorgeous. The 100% fib extension puts us at $104. If we do it in the same time frame as the last leg down we’d see it sometime in April. Full disclosure, I have 6/21 puts that I just doubled down on. pic.twitter.com/5Yx38O0Dpk— Cambist (@CambistTrades) January 18, 2019 Here’s the chart if you don’t want to click through: This is a weekly chart, so it’s going to ta ..read more

I’ve been in a EURUSD long that I’m now clearly wanting out of as we test this support as resistance: I’m mostly posting this because I’m afraid Oanda’s servers might be down and I want to build my case that I wasn’t able to close my trade, even for a slight loss. If this ends up moving lower (like I expect it might), I’ll be royally screwed. Never mind the fact that if I could close right now I’d be shorting. I’ve been trying to close this trade for the last minute or two via my mobile app, and now the web platform. Nothing is working. Live chat seems to be down, and I can’t get a hold of an ..read more

Yesterday I outlined my thesis on why I thought “this time was different” for EURUSD, and we’d see a breakout of the long lasting range. Talk about instant gratification. Today the Euro closed up more than 100 pips against the dollar on the back of multiple Fed members’ dovish leaning speeches. This is the exact scenario I was expecting last night. But I can’t give myself too much credit, it wasn’t that hard of a conclusion to come to given Fed Chair Powell’s previous guidance. We just needed a catalyst. So what now? Well, here’s another video explaining what I’m doing (spoiler: not much… stil ..read more

It’s been about a month since I’ve had the time to do a trading video. Tonight I dig into my current EURUSD trade and why I believe we’re about to break higher. I go over the key technical analysis along with some pretty simple potential fundamental catalysts. One thing I forgot to mention in the video was this piece from ForexLive today. The TL;DR is the Euro has been unable to go down even with extremely poor economic data coming out of Germany. I hope you enjoy the video. Trade safe! The post Time for a EURUSD range break appeared first on Forex Made Millionaire ..read more

In tonight’s video I talk about why I’m still bullish the US Dollar and looking to short EURUSD. Please note that in the video I mention I have already started a short position. I’ve taken that off for a tiny profit, as I’m not sure we’re quite ready to roll over yet.  Here’s a look at the 15-min chart and why I think we might be heading a bit higher yet: We’re essentially consolidating this last leg higher and hanging out above the previous resistance zone. The 50 and 100-bar SMA’s have crossed the 200 and the 50 is nearing current price, likely to be supportive. I’ve actually taken a ..read more