(I am trying to organize my thinking in this post.) Three things to bear in mind (first two are facts and the third is an assumption): It is no longer possible for the Prime Minister to unilaterally call an election in the middle of a term without two-thirds of the House of Commons voting for it. The Leave vote is split between the Conservatives, the Brexit Party and Labour. The Remain vote in split between the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, SNP and Labour. Boris Johnson is office-motivated not policy-motivated, i.e. he cares about being elected with a working majority and n ..read more

There is a sender and two receivers, L and R. The sender has information, the state of the world, and can also make a decision. There is a socially optimal decision, the ethical decision, which depends on the true state of the world. The sender’s preferences depend on the gap between her decision and the ethical decision and on her “reputation” – more on reputation below. If the sender only cared about making the ethical decision, her problem is simple – she implements the socially optimal policy for the privately observed state. But she also cares how much support her decision gets from the t ..read more

(I am trying to organize my thinking in this post.) Three things to bear in mind (first two are facts and the third is an assumption): It is no longer possible for the Prime Minister to unilaterally call an election in the middle of a term without two-thirds of the House of Commons voting for it. The Leave vote is split between the Conservatives, the Brexit Party and Labour. The Remain vote in split between the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, SNP and Labour. Boris Johnson is office-motivated not policy-motivated, i.e. he cares about being elected with a working majority and n ..read more