SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — While Ukraine deals with shortages of troops, munitions, and equipment for its air defenses, some Ukrainians are teaming up with foreign investors to prepare for a post-war era. And if some might question the wisdom of putting money into a country as it fights a increasingly challenging war of resistance, others believe the moment to invest is now, not only as a gesture of support for Ukraine but as a smart financial move as well. Certainly that’s the message Lenna Koszarny brought to The Cipher Brief’s recent Kyiv Economic and Security Forum. Lenna Koszarny i ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — With a mere 1.2 million citizens, Estonia is among NATO’s smallest members, but its contributions to Ukraine have led the pack by a wide margin. Estonia’s military aid to Ukraine has reached 3.6 percent of GDP; by that metric, Denmark is the second most generous donor, at 2.4 percent; the U.S., by comparison, has given the equivalent of 0.32 percent of GDP, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. There’s a reason for Estonia’s generosity; it was invaded by the Russian-led Soviet Union twice in the past century and ultimately won its freedom ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE BRIEFING — Drone weapons are part of the daily narrative of the war in Ukraine – from Russia’s use of Iranian drones against infrastructure to Ukraine’s drone strikes against Russian territory and Russian vessels in the Black Sea. Beyond those headline-grabbing attacks, both sides are now using drones in nearly every military operation, and as the volume of drone strikes soars, Russia and Ukraine have invested heavily in domestic drone manufacturing to meet a soaring demand. And if Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine sparked the world’s first true drone war, other global th ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS — Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel this weekend were both a potentially game-changing, historic first — and an underwhelming response. Historic, because Iran itself had never attacked Israel directly, choosing instead to use its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to play that role. The last country to fire missiles at Israel was Iraq during the 1991 Persian Gulf War.  But the strikes were also underwhelming, given that for two weeks, observers in the region and around the world had feared a massive Iranian response to the April 1 Israeli air strike that k ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Ukraine was hit by a fresh round of Russian missile attacks on Thursday, strikes that targeted and damaged the country’s power grid infrastructure. The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, the largest in the Kyiv region, was destroyed, and explosions were reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and western Lviv regions. A day earlier, Russian missile and drone attacks damaged Ukrainian energy facilities in the Black Sea regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv. Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said the attacks were part of a Kremlin effort to to cripple the country ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Ukraine was hit by a fresh round of Russian missile attacks Thursday, strikes that targeted and damaged the country’s power grid infrastructure. The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, the largest in the Kyiv region, was destroyed, and explosions were reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and western Lviv regions. A day earlier, Russian missile and drone attacks damaged Ukrainian energy facilities in the Black Sea regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv. Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said the attacks were part of a Kremlin effort to to cripple the country’s ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — The Israeli drone strike that killed three sons (and four grandchildren) of Hamas’s Qatar-based political leader Ismail Haniyeh Wednesday provided the Israeli military a small victory in its pursuit of Hamas leaders, but it may also have set back prospects for a ceasefire with Hamas militants in Gaza, according to Israelis and Palestinians who have spoken publicly on the assassinations. The attack on a car in which Haniyeh’s sons were riding was quickly claimed by Israel. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Adm. Daniel Hagari said the three were “military ..read more

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – In the spring of 2022, Ukraine beat back a Russian assault on the nation’s capital and punished the invaders on many fronts. Two years later, the country faces stark realities on multiple fronts: Russia is pounding the country’s infrastructure while laying the groundwork for a fresh offensive; Ukraine is preparing what some have called a “spring defensive,” its offensive capability limited to asymmetric warfare against targets in southern Russia and Russian-held Crimea; and hanging over the battlefield is the holdup of U.S. military aid, which has hampered Ukrainian air ..read more

SPECIAL CIPHER BRIEF DISPATCH FROM KYIV — The Ukraine war has reached a “pivotal moment,” a “critical stage,” an “inflection point“ – all phrases being used to describe the current situation in a conflict that may now be decided not only in the trenches of eastern Ukraine, but in Washington as well.  It may also be a turning point for NATO and the West. “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intellig ..read more

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — During the first week of April, The Cipher Brief traveled with a delegation of national security and military experts led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus (Ret.) to Ukraine. While there, we met with a number of current and former senior officials in the Government of Ukraine (GoU), including; the National Security Advisor of Ukraine, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU), the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Service (HUR), the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, the leadership team of the Security Service of Ukr ..read more