What are the geopolitical implications of the AUKUS partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States? Although Pillar I of the initiative and the announcement of Australia’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines grabbed the headlines, what does Pillar II have in store? Analysts Ronan Wordsworth and Victoria Herczegh join host Christian Smith for a discussion on the future of AUKUS and what the potential addition of Japan and New Zealand to the alliance could mean for China and the Indo-Pacific. The post AUKUS and the Indo-Pacific appeared first on Geopolitical Futu ..read more

Nagorno-Karabakh update. A joint Turkish-Russian monitoring center in Nagorno-Karabakh has closed, six months after Azerbaijan recaptured the region from ethnic Armenian forces. The center was opened in January 2021, following a major escalation in the long-standing conflict there. Earlier this month, Russian peacekeepers began withdrawing from the region ahead of schedule, a decision Azerbaijani President […] The post Daily Memo: Turkey and Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh, Iranian Influence in Africa appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

Pulling back. Iran has reduced its presence in Syria following strikes widely attributed to Israel in recent months that hit Iranian targets in the country, according to media reports that cite a source close to Hezbollah and the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The reports say Iran “withdrew its forces from southern Syria,” including […] The post Daily Memo: Iran’s Presence in Syria, Blinken Visits China appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

Zeev Jabotinsky was a highly influential figure in Israeli history as a co-founder of the Jewish National Fund and the Jewish Legion who served in World War I for the British military. He played a vital role in convincing Britain to issue the Balfour Declaration to establish a national homeland for the Jews in Palestine, […] The post Israel’s Iron Wall Doctrine appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

Atomic power. Iran plans to build more nuclear power plants to increase its generation capacity and ensure its national energy security, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said Monday. He was speaking during a visit to the Bushehr nuclear plant, which he said had produced 63 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in the […] The post Daily Memo: Iran Plans More Nuclear Plants, Russia Eyes African Ports appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

The notion that all countries operate within constraints is one of the main pillars of geopolitics. It came up repeatedly during my recent visit to the United States, where I attended several talks on European and Russian affairs. Though we at GPF try to stay out of the D.C. bubble, it’s nonetheless important for us […] The post European Views on US Global Posture appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

4:23 – Doug Fears on Today’s Threats 16:28 – George Friedman – World Under Pressure 21:40 – Doug and George on Malign Influences 35:39 – Q&A Session The post Live Discussion: The Changing Landscape of Threats appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

The fallout from Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage through Israel and the March 22 massacre at Crocus City Hall near Moscow are dreadful reminders of the potential outsized effect of terrorist attacks. The most effective attacks provoke intense emotions, especially fear and paranoia, which can trigger dramatic changes in a country’s foreign and domestic policies. In […] The post How Different Countries Respond to Terrorism appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, made some stark remarks about the state of the Chinese economy. Liu said that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were far worse than expected and that the fiscal standing of local governments is deteriorating quicker than thought. Seismic, structural shifts are happening rapidly, and more non-economic risks are emerging than economic ones. All of this has created imbalances that Beijing is struggling to navigate. Ac ..read more

(click to enlarge) Each year, the U.S. Coast Guard issues a report on port state control, the inspection of foreign ships in national ports. The purpose of inspections is to verify that vessels are in working order and compliant with international regulations. The U.S. Coast Guard screens vessels before they arrive at U.S. ports, checking things like the ship’s condition, its emergency and safety management systems, and documentation. In some cases, the Coast Guard detains the ship, most often because of accumulations of oil in the engine room and other maintenance issues. This year’s report i ..read more