The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s initial GDP for the first quarter, which at 1.6% y/y missed the market estimate of 2.5% and was sharply lower the Q4 2023 reading of 3.4%. Consumer spending slipped to 2.5%, down from 3.4% in Q 2023. Meanwhile, there was bad news on the inflation front, as the person ..read more

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It is expected to drop to 2.2% in April, down from 2.4% in March. The Tokyo core-core rate, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to fall, from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The March reading marked the first time that the core-core rate fell below 3% since November 2022. Infla ..read more

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in April, up from -28.8 in March and is expected to rise to -24.2 in the May forecast, above the market estimate of -25.9. The May reading marks a two-year high but let’s not forget that consumer confidence remains deep in negative (pessimistic) territory. Consumer income ..read more

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. In February, retail sales contracted by 0.1%, after a 0.3% decline in January and shy of the market estimate of 0.1%. The preliminary reading for March retail sales came in at unchanged. On an annualized basis, retail sales rose 1.2% in February, up from the revised 0 ..read more

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the first quarter. Inflation rose 3.6% y/y in Q1, down sharply from 4.1% in the fourth quarter but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest rate since Q4 2024 and the drop was widespread across most components of inflation. Inflatio ..read more

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. German shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 separates pessimism from optimism) but there are signs of optimism that the eurozone’s largest economy may have bottomed out. The reading marked a third straight increase, which in the past has indicated that the German economy has turned a corner. Business confidence is now at its ..read more

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% on Monday, 22 April, its worst daily performance since 13 June 2022 (almost two years), and continued to extend its losses in yesterday’s (23 April) Asian session. So far, it has recorded an accumulated loss of -5.8% from its recent fresh all-time high of US$2,431 print ..read more

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation numbers is likely to keep the hawkish vibes in RBA in check. Secondly, we will have Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting and the release of its latest outlook report on the Japanese economy on Friday (26 April), it is likely that BOJ may revise its projected core-c ..read more

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week corrective decline sequence may be extended further as its key market breadth indicator (% of component stocks above 50-day moving average) has not reached an oversold region. Watch the first key medium-term support at 4,800 on the S&P 500. T ..read more

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest level since early November. The data cupboard is bare today, with no US releases and only one event in the eurozone. German PPI dropped 2.9% y/y in March, marking a ninth straight month of producer deflation. ECB poised to lower rates in June With consumer inflation falling in the eurozone ..read more