Here’s the entire Legislative Fiscal Bureau document on Foxconn (since links to original site do not work in my previous post “Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.”: Table 4 (which underpins these graphs) below: Source: LFB (2017). This table provides the basis for these graphs: Figure 1: State payments (blue) and increased tax revenue (red) under August 2017 Special Session Assembly Bill 1, in millions of dollars, by fiscal year (2018 indicates FY 2018-19). Source: Legislative Fiscal Bureau, Table 4. Figure 2: Net benefits calculated as increased tax revenue minus state paym ..read more

New Ifri paper: The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage. Many in the United States (US) are concerned about indebtedness to its primary strategic rival, and the risks posed by a sudden Chinese withdrawal from US financial markets. US policymakers actively so ..read more

On the day in which President Biden announced the repurposing of the site that was to be Foxconn’s, I reprint this 2017 assessment. From the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, the Memorandum of Understanding between Wisconsin and Foxconn states: …Foxconn agrees to invest $10 billion to construct, over six years, a facility in Wisconsin and create up to 13,000 jobs, with a reported average salary of $53,875 over a period of up to six years. The state’s agreement, under the MOU, among other things, is to provide up to $3 billion in an economic package which would include refundable tax credits and ..read more

From EIA (May 7, 2024): Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024). Note that the forecast is slightly above futures. See Chinn and Coibion (2014) on oil futures forecasting performance. Here’s the gasoline forecast: Source: EIA, STEO (May 2024). For context, here’s regular gasoline prices (nominal, real) in the US: Figure 1: Price of regular gasoline in $/gallon (blue), and in 2017$/gallon (tan). Relative price calculated by dividing gasoline price by core CPI; April core CPI based on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/8/2024. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA, BLS, via FRED ..read more

Some data, as President Biden visits (CNN): Macro indicators: Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations. Most indicators are moving upwards as of latest available data. Civilian employment is the only one trending sideways; however, this divergence has also oc ..read more

From FAZ: Der Euro und der Renminbi können in ihrer internationalen Bedeutung nicht mit dem Dollar wetteifern. Die amerikanische Währung bleibt an den Finanzmärkten der Maßstab. Seit Jahren gibt es Berichte über eine nachlassende Bedeutung des Dollars als führende internationale Währung und über eine wachsende Bedeutung des chinesischen Renminbis. Tatsächlich bleibt der Dollar als internationale Währung dreimal so wichtig wie der Euro und noch ungleich wichtiger als der Yen, das Pfund oder der Renminbi. Darauf weist eine neue Arbeit der Ökonomen Menzie D. Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel und Hiro ..read more

Public Service Announcement, for those who wish to talk intelligently about macro, instead of ranting. Here’s what I use (in response to Steven Kopits asking “What the he** do you teach your students, Menzie”). The following are free use, or older editions that have been superseded by newer. Blanchard and Johnson, Macroeconomics (earlier version of what I use for my undergrad macro courses). Garin, Lester, Sims, Intermediate Macroeconomics (what I use for a UW M.Sc. level course) Wooldridge, Introductory Econometrics (I use Stock and Watson, Introduction Econometrics). Feenstra, Taylor, Intern ..read more

If you’re going to willy-nilly divide things by random deflators, maybe you should read this (free) manual first.   For a more compact exposition, see this 2008 blogpost, with link to Diewert JEP piece. Must confess, when I first ran into “Fisher ideal price indices” as an undergraduate, I was befuddled. But I appreciated the knowledge when I became a research assistant ..read more

From the Employment Situation Release: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), NFP early benchmark (tan), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP concept (green), all in 1000’s, s.a.. Philadelphia Fed NFP early benchmark calculated by applying early benchmark sum of states level ratio to post-benchmark sum of states level to CES national level NFP. Source: BLS via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.   Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), from ADP (green), and aggregate weekly hours for private nonfarm (tan), all in logs, 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, AD ..read more

With the employment situation release, we have a first reading on April conditions. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advise ..read more