US March 2020 to March 2024 Unprecedented QE followed by Unprecedented QT In early 2020 at the beginning and during the more lethal  covid variant phases, the Central Bank and governmental response of unprecedented QE/low interest rate/MBS/money creation and distribution   resulted in historical price inflation and misallocation of bank lending for speculative enterprises. The central bank then pivoted to an unprecedented acceleration of QT, shearing bond holders and causing Silicon Valley, Signature, First Republic and Heartland bank failures in 2023. These banks had the&n ..read more

March 2020 Peak Lammert Fractal Growth and the Great 1982 13/31-32 Year Crash From March 2020 the fractal math for the maximum time based self-assembly  fractal growth for equities is quite simple :  X/2.5X/2.5X , where X is the time length of  the First Fractal Base ending in a low valuation (30 October 2020), 2.5X is the time length of the Second Fractal ending in a low valuation (16/17 June 2022), and 2.5X is the time length of the Third Fractal ending in a peak valuation. (12/13 February 2024) First Fractal: X: 35 weeks: 23 March 2020 to 30 October 2020 (3)/33 weeks {t ..read more

As part of a 1807 US hegemony x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year great fractal progression with nadirs in 1842/43 and 1932, and a peak valuation in November 2021, the valuation of the US progenitor and composite Wilshire has risen with post World War II US global money/credit expansion and with initially its enormous geopolitical and manufacturing dominance. Since the Volcker US peak interest rates in 1982, the Wilshire has been propelled by money and debt expansion from both the gradual 45 year lowering of US (and global) interest rates and later from direct central bank creation and owners ..read more

US long term debt instruments reached an inter-day low of 0.4 pc on 9 March 2020 and have risen to a high of 4.997 pc on 23 October 2023. The US central bank is simply allowing supply and demand market forces to apply QT to an overheated economy fueled by printed money, 2 plus trillion dollars of covid savings, and covid forbearance of payments on US MBS related mortgages and US-lended college debt. Covid savings and easy forbearances on debt payments are expiring or have expired. Outstanding credit card debt, subprime automobile debt, and student loan debt make it difficult for further privat ..read more

The 14 day valuation gain from the 27 October 2023 low was unexpected but within the 13 March 2023 52 /104 to 130 day :: x/2x-2.5x nonlinear window. Qualitatively, the dominant service sector US economy has an operational consumer population that has no savings and has the highest ever collective debt at the highest interest rates in over 15 years. The consumer is tapped out. The Chinese economy whose base population savings is in real estate has a different, but real problem with the collapse of property and real estate prices and a collapse of stock valuations of the large corporations, e.g ..read more

All of the above asset classes – and the inverse for sovereign debt interests, i.e., interest rates have a major interim low ending 21 November 2023.  Will the crash devaluation for the above assets  be 5, 10, 15, 20, 25%. or more from their current Sunday 12 November  2023 valuations?  Time will tell. The Bank of Shanghai should have a 25-30 percent loss from its current valuation. The asset-debt macroeconomic  system, a product of human transaction self-orders  the timing of its asset classes’ peak and secondary peak high and nadir low valuations and does in a m ..read more

Not all global asset valuations will crash. Recent buyers of US bonds and US Notes will see great valuation increases in purchased sovereign debt as those investment instruments will undergo quantum fractal lower interest rates – to the 16 November 2023 composite equity. gold. commodity, and crypto low valuations. Money exiting those assets sold by the smarter speculators/AI programs will enter the US debt market driving interest rates down. The inverse Sovereign Debt fractal series, ie, Bond and Note interest rates, are following a 4-Phase Lammert x/2-2.5x/2xi/1.5xi collapse where xi is the i ..read more

Within the Great 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Fractal series – with a 36 year low valuation in 1842-43, a 90 year low valuation on 8 July 1932, a 90 year peak valuation on 8 November 2021, and an expected low in 2074, a several decade interpolated fractal series of x/2-2.5x started on 11-12 August 1982 of 13/30 years with a 13 year subfractal (1) low valuation ending in 1994. This is depicted below. Subfractal (2) series end in nonlinear devaluation. This can occur over months as occurred for the 90 year subfractal (2) ending in 1932 or more suddenly as in October 19 ..read more

Existing corporate, private, and governmental debt and ongoing and future social contract debt (i.e, health, retirement, disability and poverty subsistence programs) form the conjoined foundation of all ongoing asset valuations. When the dr/dt/dt of collective new debt creation becomes zero and thereafter negative, non-sovereign debt asset valuations decrease, bad debt supporting those declining asset valuations undergo default or restructuring, and a nonlinear deleveraging of overvalued assets occurs. It is the hypothesis of this website that this connected process of total debt and total ass ..read more

The mathematical fractal pathway to the 6 October high in US sovereign long term interest rates was described in the previous post. The fractal pathway to the 27 October 2023 is described below. For the Wilshire from18 August 2023: 5/15/13 days :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x. From 3 October2023: 4/9/8 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x ending 27 October 2023. The final low is expected Jan to March 2025 ..read more