There’s a Bubble… but it Ain’t in Tech CEO buys Unicorn to avoid Disruption = Unicorn Hedge. Abstract: the press have been whining “there’s another bubble in tech!” for years but it hasn’t happened (yet)… meanwhile VC-funded startups continue to raise capital, drive innovation, and disrupt incumbents. While some claim the recent downturn in unicorn financings and valuations is proof they were right (finally!) they couldn’t be more wrong — valuations have calmed down, but tech entrepreneurs and investors aren’t going anywhere. In fact, that ugly little asset class called Venture Capit ..read more

Don’t Go Big or Go Home. Go Small at first, then Iterate, Dominate, & WIN. One of these things is not like the others. Abstract: Startups are more likely to find product/market fit by narrowing their target demographic, understanding customer needs/benefit better, and building more focused & differentiated products along with more specific marketing messages that are better tuned to those audiences. Later, after getting initial traction with a small audience, startups can then grow their market and expand product offerings to go after bigger market segments. Many investors gi ..read more

(this post was originally published on svbtle.com on July 7, 2012) most of the time I think of myself as a failure. when I’m optimistic, I think maybe I’m just a late bloomer. I know a lot of folks won’t understand this perspective, but when I was growing up I was always the smartest kid around. it was expected that I would do great things, by my mom, by my teachers, and most importantly, by me. I don’t know whether that’s a good thing or bad thing, but high expectations were always around me, and for the first 10–15 years, the results would seem to indicate that was a likely&nb ..read more

99 VC Problems But A Batch Ain’t One: Why Portfolio Size Matters For Returns Abstract: Most VC funds are far too concentrated in a small number (<20–40) of companies. The industry would be better served by doubling or tripling the average # of investments in a portfolio, particularly for early-stage investors where startup attrition is even greater. If unicorns happen only 1–2% of the time, it logically follows that portfolio size should include a minimum of 50–100+ companies in order to have a reasonable shot at capturing these elusive and mythical creatures. Like startups, most ventu ..read more

i couldn’t find an appropriate image for this post, but the gun-toting cat looks totally fucking cool on top of that unicorn. Summary: pundits argue billion-dollar startups are overvalued, but few realize why public company valuations might also be too expensive. Traditional P/E ratios of 15–20+ are likely too optimistic, relative to how long the future cash flows and operating margins of big dumb companies can be sustained. Unless they innovate more rapidly (or acquire their internet peers), expect most S&P 500 Dinosaurs to be disrupted and destroyed by an endless march of VC-funded ..read more

aka: do you give a Shit + can you get others to give a Shit. as a founder, it’s easy to lose focus on what job(s) we’re supposed to do. sometimes it’s all rainbows & unicorns: designing and building product, marketing and selling, recruiting the team and raising money. other times, it’s a bowl full of crap: dealing with unhappy customers or employees, making payroll when you’re low on cash, handling rejection from a partner or investor, or maybe just cleaning up dishes after someone left them dirty. it really doesn’t matter — they’re all your job. Just #gitrdone. it’s often hard ..read more

Failure isn’t the worst thing to happen to you in Silicon Valley. In fact, failure is a rather warm, safe blanket for most folks around these parts. Unlike most places in the world where public failure could ruin your career, destroy a family, or even bring risk of death from shame… in Silicon Valley, everyone is all too comfortable openly discussing their failure(s). While this is generally a good thing — most people won’t learn how to stretch themselves unless they push the boundaries of potential failure — a far greater fear for many entrepreneurs is that of unsustainable success. Far ..read more