by Hoa Duong Economics +44 (0)7753 459022 More articles by Hoa by Nick Forrest UK Economics Consulting Leader, PwC United Kingdom +44 (0)7803 617744 More articles by Nick Negotiations on future financial services regulation between the UK and EU is due at the end of March 2021, however, as the deadline approaches uncertainty remains. Under the new EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, the two parties aim to reach a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by the end of this month, setting out a framework for regulatory cooperation in financial services – the UK’s most valuable export sect ..read more

by Jonathan Gillham Chief Economist +44 (0)7714 567297 More articles by Jonathan by Bernard Tsz Kin Tsang Consulting +44 (0)7483 407364 More articles by Bernard by Hoa Duong Economics +44 (0)7753 459022 What is the state of the UK economy right now? How much of the lost economic output has  been recovered? It has never been more important to have timely answers to these questions. Official GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) often comes with a time lag. And that is where fast data comes in. How might nowcast help? Recognising the need for more timely data on t ..read more

by Hannah AudinoEconomist, PwC United Kingdom +44 (0)7483 348728 More articles by Hannah by Jonathan GillhamChief Economist, PwC United Kingdom +44 (0)7714 567297 More articles by Jonathan As a second national lockdown gets underway, along with fears of a double dip recession, the debate around negative interest rates is likely to resurface. With Mr Sunak extending the furlough scheme until March next year, all eyes will now be on the Bank of England over the coming months to see how far monetary policy can stimulate the economy. In its November Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank of Eng ..read more

by Hannah AudinoEconomist, PwC United Kingdom +44 (0)7483 348728 More articles by Hannah by Jonathan GillhamChief Economist, PwC United Kingdom +44 (0)7714 567297 More articles by Jonathan As a second national lockdown gets underway, along with fears of a double dip recession, the debate around negative interest rates is likely to resurface. With Mr Sunak extending the furlough scheme until March next year, all eyes will now be on the Bank of England over the coming months to see how far monetary policy can stimulate the economy. In its November Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank of Eng ..read more

by Yong Jing Teow Economist +44 (0)7525 281974 More articles by Yong Jing Productivity is a major driver of a nation’s economic prosperity and, in the long run, is vital for wages and standards of living. Although the UK is notable for falling behind its G7 peers on various measures of productivity, as we explore in our latest UK Economic Outlook, the issue for many parts of the UK is less about how to catch up with other countries than about how to catch up with cities and regions much closer to home. For starters, gaps in regional productivity are large and widening over time: London ..read more

Jamie Durham | Economist Profile |  |  John Hawksworth | Chief Economist Profile |  |  There is considerable evidence that house prices tend to be higher around good state schools. In our recently released report, we have added to this evidence base by updating and extending research published by the government in 2017. In line with this research, we have estimated the additional cost of living near to one of England’s highest performing state schools (i.e. in the top 10% based on attainment data).  We refer to this additional cost as the ‘house price premium’ and find that, in 2017/18, t ..read more

by Mike Jakeman Senior Economist More articles by Mike In the latest edition of UK Economic Outlook we released our latest projections for house prices in the period to 2025. In our main scenario, we expect the house price-to-earnings ratio to remain close to its all-time high, at around 8.5. This means that it will not become any easier for workers to get onto the housing ladder, as house prices are likely to rise at a similar rate to wages. Given that the cost of housing is likely to remain prohibitively high for many groups, we conducted some new research into the affordability of the ..read more

by Jing Teow Economist +44 (0)7525 281974 More articles by Jing by Yuval Fertig Senior Associate +44 (0)7872 815700 More articles by Yuval Ever since the burgeoning of international trade in the post-war era, economists have sought to understand the fundamental factors that drive it. One surprising finding was that trade is largely determined by the same two features that govern the physical world - mass and distance - as captured in an equation that mirrors Newton’s universal law of gravitation. This gives rise to the so-called ‘gravity model’ of trade1. The model predicts that bigger ..read more

by John Hawksworth Chief Economist More articles by John One of the striking features of the performance of the UK economy since the financial crisis has been the contrast between strong jobs growth and insipid productivity growth, as the chart below illustrates. In some ways this has been a good thing, because unemployment never ballooned to the levels of over 3 million seen after the early 1980s and early 1990s recessions. It’s now down to only around 4%, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. The UK employment rate is at record highs of over 75%, driven in particular by a rise in the ..read more

by Mike Jakeman Senior Economist +44 (0)7483 361717 More articles by Mike Growth in the UK economy has slowed since the summer as businesses have become more concerned about the lack of clarity around the consequences of Brexit. In our latest UK Economic Outlook, we have revised down our main scenario projection for GDP growth in 2019 to 1.1%, from 1.4% previously, as we now expect business investment to shrink in the year as a whole. Since the EU referendum, it has primarily been consumer spending that has driven the economy. Higher inflation linked to the weaker pound did lead to a moder ..read more