CurrencyThoughts
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CurrencyThoughts is a stand-alone independent advisory service that integrates all global financial markets and the macroeconomic trends that make them tick. Larry Greenberg, a veteran currency economist brings forex news from many places all over the world, and in-depth analysis of current events.
CurrencyThoughts
2h ago
Analysts hadn’t expected a cut today in the Reserve Bank of Australia Official Cash Rate, which has been at a 22-year high of 4.35% since a 25-basis point rate last November, but the rate announcement‘s tone and Governor Bullock’s press conference proved surprisingly hawkish. While inflation is easing, it is doing so more slowly than ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1d ago
Great Britain is observing its early spring bank holiday, while the Japanese and South Koreans are celebrating Children’s Day. Data releases have been comparatively few this Monday and limited to an additional batch of April purchasing manager surveys and Euroland producer prices. The dollar’s net weighted change compared to its closing before the weekend has ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
4d ago
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in the U.K., Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Sweden, Poland, Serbia, Moldova, Iceland, and Malaysia. A summary of the Bank of Japan’s April 25-26th Board meeting will be published, and markets will get a clearer idea of how much intervention has been done by Japan. Governor Bailey of the Bank ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
4d ago
Fed Chairman Powell’s quelling of interest rate hike fears has alleviated investor concerns for now. It would probably take a significant overshoot of jobs and wage growth in today’s April data to remove that hopeful mood. Investors are anticipating a 240k rise in non-farm payrolls and marginally slower on-year wage growth of about 4.0%. U.S ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
5d ago
The FOMC statement includes two changes compared to the prior March 20th statement. An added sentence to the first paragraph reads, In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective. This comment follows the repeated remark that “inflation has eased over the past years but remains ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
6d ago
In April, 10-year sovereign debt yields rose roughly as much, and in the U.S. case more, than in the whole first quarter. Central bank short-term interest rates were not changed in any of the central banks featured in the table below but fell by 20 percentage points in Argentina, 200 basis points in Kyrgyzstan, 100 ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
6d ago
The Fed is in a difficult bind, partly resulting from the shift toward making policymaking more transparent. Four enormous shocks over the past two decades have eroded general confidence in all institutions of authority including the Fed: the financial crisis of 2007-8, a technology revolution that has transformed how economic and other news get received ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
6d ago
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan, where CPI inflation of 1.0% in March was at a 111-month low and down from 13.9% touched in December 2022, the refinancing rate has been sliced by another quarter percentage point to a 29-month low of 7.25%. This was the fifth reduction since a peak of 9.0% that prevailed from ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
6d ago
Financial markets are shut in a slew of countries — but not in the U.K., Japan or the United States — for May Day observances that extol the rights of workers. The dollar is modestly higher. Japanese officials have not confirmed nor denied yesterday’s strongly suspected intervention triggered after the yen fell to as low ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1w ago
The Central Bank of Armenia‘s refinancing rate recorded its eighth reduction, dropping 25 basis points to 8.25%. From a high of 10.75% from December 2022 until an initial rate cut last June, the rate has so far been lowered by 250 basis points. With sub-zero consumer price inflation since November versus a medium-term target of ..read more