By popular demand: Flow of the Vote, Scotland edition. Each block represents 25k voters in colour of 2019 vote, based on data from all Scottish polls this year. Much like the Tories GB-wide, the SNP's vote has splintered in multiple directions, Labour the ultimate beneficiary. pic.twitter.com/EDs39TTgzy — Dylan Difford (@Dylan_Difford) April 16, 2024 Where are 2019 SNP voters today? Still SNP: 58% Lab: 17% DK: 8% Dead: 5% Grn: 3% LD: 2% Con: 2% Alba: 2% — Dylan Difford (@Dylan_Difford) April 16, 2024 Where are 2019 Scottish Labour today? Still Labour: 73% SNP: 6% DK: 6% Dead: 5% Con ..read more

Richard Parker leads Andy Street by 14%. West Midlands Mayoral Election VI (10-14 April): Richard Parker (Lab) 42% Andy Street (Cons) 28% Elaine Williams (Ref) 13% Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 7% Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 7% Other 2%https://t.co/BmEcOjM5q4 pic.twitter.com/oluoaQ5xdl — Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) April 16, 2024 Andy Street's net approval rating in the West Midlands is +12%. Andy Street Approval Rating (10-14 April): Approve: 31% Disapprove: 19% Net: +12% https://t.co/BmEcOjM5q4 pic.twitter.com/FfuUMEkrhd — Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWi ..read more

“This might be a bit of a tough interview. Better get absolutely shitfaced before I go on air.” pic.twitter.com/i85tIzwKqa — Nick Pettigrew (@Nick_Pettigrew) April 15, 2024 "It's a shame he's not in the Conservative Party" Former PM Liz Truss tells @ChrismasonBBC why she believes Nigel Farage would make a good Tory MP Listen to the full #BBCNewscast interview ? https://t.co/fX5rrKDb8C pic.twitter.com/1gJj6Kdno9 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 15, 2024 Liz Truss endorses Donald Trump to win US presidential election https://t.co/MvyY5MEbuY — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) April 15, 2024 ..read more

Jo Coburn: What crime do you think Angela Rayner committed? James Daly(Tory MP): We should allow the police investigation to proceed JC: But what do you think she's done? JD: We should allow them to carry out that investigation JC: What's the offense?#PoliticsLive pic.twitter.com/Z1rgXYsGxo — Haggis_UK ?? ?? (@Haggis_UK) April 15, 2024 I’ve thought for a while that the story about Angela Rayner’s living arrangements was all light and no heat and yesterday’s segment on the Politics Show just confirmed that. I cringed so much watching the performance by James Daly that my shoe size shrank ..read more

Some notes: – This is not a forecast of later in the year, it is based on current polling for an election held tomorrow – This is a polls-only model, it doesn't incorporate MRPs, by-elections, local dynamics or tactical voting (hoping to build on this in future!) — Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) April 15, 2024 That said, we estimate a significantly higher seat share for the Conservatives than recent MRPs. Two main reasons for this: 1. The Conservatives have historically outperformed their polls 2. Uniform swing predicts the Conservatives to keep more of their safest seats than MRP — Owen Winte ..read more

Liz Truss refuses to rule out running for Tory leader again in her #LBC interview with @IainDale tonight. "I have unfinished business, and I think the Conservative party has unfinished business". Expect to see that on Labour leaflets come the general election… — Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) April 15, 2024 As Liz Truss floats the potential for a political comeback worth revisiting the February @IpsosUK Political Pulse Liz Truss – 8% favourable / 68% unfavourable Check out more trends at our beautiful polling microsite: https://t.co/uJAnqqPttO pic.twitter.com/5s3s9YRECC — Keiran Pedley ..read more

There’s obviously the London Mayoral election, ten other Mayoral elections and the PCC contests but I’m going to look at a key Council. Nuneaton & Bedworth Council covers all or part of the Conservative-held constituencies of Nuneaton and North Warwickshire. The Conservatives took control in 2021 and in 2022 when half the 34 seats were contested, strengthened their hold and currently have 27 seats with Labour on 5 and the Greens on 2. Boundary changes have increased the seat number to 38. In 2022, the Conservatives won 50.5%, Labour 35% and the Greens 14%. There are now 19 Wards each elec ..read more

Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election? We are potentially a few weeks away from a general election and as far as I can see there are no individual constituency markets so we cannot bet on the most intriguing seats like Didcot & Wantage. There are also no seat spread betting opportunities which is where loins are girded and some of my biggest ever political wins have occured. I followed Mike Smithson in selling Tory seats at circa 400 seats in April 2017 and rejoiced when the Tories won only 317 seats at the election in June 2017. These markets are wh ..read more

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read — Sunak is facing calls from some allies to name the election date to head off a leadership challenge after May 2 — Oct/Nov/Dec still the aim. Dec 12 is one date that’s been discussed — but June/July in play as a back-uphttps://t.co/TtF2swGPgm — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) April 13, 2024 — Tory rebels plan to move against Sunak after May 2 — they claim 25 letters are in and that another 10 are ready to go straight after locals — so they think they need ~15 more MPs to hit 53 — PM naming a date could get ahead of it and put off lettershttps://t.co/TtF2 ..read more

Do Britons want Boris Johnson back as an MP? All Britons: 24% do / 67% don't 2019 Con voters: 46% do / 46% don'thttps://t.co/kuaJeV6oUm pic.twitter.com/hHZWVtzaDz — YouGov (@YouGov) April 12, 2024 The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air, I see it in the polling, the era of Boris Johnson is over. The stand out figure is that even a majority of Leavers do not want him back as an MP, even more so than the fact 2019 Tories are evenly split on the question. If this question asked if the country wanted Boris Johnson back as Prime Minister my ex ..read more