(Dusts off the old blog) Hello, everyone! It's been awhile.  But, I'm back and returning to my roots with the launch of my new website, The Writ! It'll be a little bit like what ThreeHundredEight.com used to be, but also a little different.  Please check it out. In the meantime, this website will continue to function and be accessible as an archive of my older work ..read more

So long and thanks for all the polls When I started this site in October 2008, it was out of my admiration for the work that was being done by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight during that year's U.S. presidential election. His site sparked a passion for political polling, election forecasts and psephology in me — and it has now become my full-time work. After developing this site from amateurish to slightly-less-amateurish, I was lucky enough to secure regular freelance work with The Globe and Mail and The Hill Times in 2010 and The Huffington Post Canada in 2011, as well as election ..read more

The Pollcast: What to watch for in Monday's byelections The five federal byelections being held on Monday are not expected to be nail-biters. They are taking place in traditionally safe seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals. But there are still some things to watch for when the votes are counted. You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and listen to past episodes here. The byelections are being held to fill the seats vacated by Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent), Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa–Vanier), John McCallum (Markham–Thornhill), Jason Kenne ..read more

Erin O'Toole winning Conservative caucus as it shuns leadership front-runners Bernier, O'Leary More than two-thirds of the Conservative caucus has gotten behind one of the 14 candidates for the party's top job. Most are supporting either Erin O'Toole or Andrew Scheer — and O'Toole has now surpassed Scheer as the favourite of Conservatives in the House of Commons, even luring two of Scheer's former backers to his side. But polls and other metrics suggest Maxime Bernier or Kevin O'Leary are leading the pack. If either of them wins, they could find themselves at the head of a Conservative caucus ..read more

NDP leadership debate to focus on young Canadians and how to win them back New Democrats vying for their party's leadership will gather in Montreal on Sunday for a debate focused exclusively on issues relating to Canada's youth — a demographic that swung in large numbers from the NDP to the Liberals in the 2015 federal election. It'll include the four candidates currently in the running for the party leadership: Ontario MP Charlie Angus, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton, Quebec MP Guy Caron and B.C. MP Peter Julian. You can read the rest of this article here ..read more

The Pollcast: The politics of the budget In the budget presented by Finance Minister Bill Morneau on Wednesday, the Liberal government laid out its plans for the future of Canada's economy, with a focus on skills training and innovation. But some of those plans extend to well after the 2019 federal election. The calculations the Liberals have baked into the budget could be at the whim of what happens in the interim, including changes in the world economy and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's presidency. You can listen to the podcast here, subscribe to future episodes here, and  ..read more

Leitch slides, O'Leary gains in Conservative Leadership Index Kellie Leitch is falling back and Kevin O'Leary is moving forward in their bids to lead the Conservative Party, according to the latest update to the Conservative Leadership Index. Fellow contenders Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole also improved their standings in the index thanks to some key political endorsements. The index is a composite of four leadership race metrics (endorsements, contributors, fundraising and polls) that has been developed to help gauge the state of the 14-candidate race to replace Stephen Harper as the party ..read more

Alberta, Quebec could carry more weight in NDP leadership race than in 2012 When New Democrats last voted to select a new leader in 2012, most of the party's eligible voting members were in British Columbia and Ontario. An analysis of NDP donors suggests these two provinces will again carry the most weight in this year's leadership vote, but that Quebec and Alberta might be more important than they were five years ago. The party did not provide a breakdown of its current membership, but looking at the regional distribution of NDP donors provides clues to how the profile of that membership mig ..read more

The Pollcast: The race for the NDP leadership is on The four candidates for the NDP leadership debated for the first time on Sunday. The event kicked off a race that has been dormant for nearly a year. It won't come to a conclusion until October, when New Democrats decide who should replace Tom Mulcair as their leader. The debate was a collegial affair. But did it provide any clues as to how this campaign might play out for the next seven months? Unlike the Conservative leadership race, which has 14 candidates in the running, so far the NDP has a more manageable group to showcase: MPs Charli ..read more

John Horgan's NDP leads the B.C. polls, if you believe them The provincial election in British Columbia is now less than two months away. And that means the polls are back. After the failure of the polls in the 2013 vote, British Columbians might be forgiven for looking at them with skepticism. But the performance of the polls since 2013 suggests there is no reason to assume they are unreliable or that British Columbians are somehow unpollable. Nevertheless, there is justification for looking at the latest numbers with a fair bit of caution. You can read the rest of this article here ..read more