A rather sobering report from Council on Foreign Relations research fellow Jacob Ware is titled “Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024.” There is a serious risk of extremist violence around the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Many of the same sources of instability and grievances that precipitated the January 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol (along with other challenges to the outcome of the last election) remain present today. And, while the risk of far-right election-related violence is greater, the possibility of far-left extremist violence cannot be dismissed. Such violence thre ..read more

CC0 Public Domain image via PxHere I want to flesh out an important underlying reality about the outcomes of mass behavior. The outcomes of mass-level human behavior should not be understood as simply the sum total of atomistic behaviors made by individuals. While, yes, mass behavior is the collection of many individuals acting, it is not simply an issue of adding up all the actions and getting the results. Individuals make choices as constrained by the structures in which they operate. The funny thing is that I expect that a large number of regular commenters (especially the ones who argue wi ..read more

An interesting story has been brewing the last few days. The first shoe dropped Tuesday: Euractiv (“Council of Europe unanimously votes to use seized Russian assets to fund Ukraine reconstruction, compensation“): The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (CoE) unanimously adopted a resolution on Tuesday (16 April) calling for frozen Russian assets to be transferred to a new fund to reconstruct Ukraine and compensate victims. The Russian government should be held responsible for compensating the human and material losses incurred and “its destruction of Ukraine”, rapporteur for the ..read more

NPR (“Israel launches missile strikes into Iran, U.S. military official says“): The Israeli military has conducted missile strikes against Iran, a senior U.S. military official told NPR on Thursday. There are also reports of explosions in Iraq and Syria. The strikes appear to be the response Israel vowed to carry out after an Iranian attack on Sunday, when Tehran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. Most of Iran’s volleys were intercepted or caused little damage. The U.S. military official spoke on condition of anonymity Thursday. Iran state news agency IRNA reported a military o ..read more

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A number of headlines today speak to an array of overlapping dysfunctions within the Republican Party. These are of different types. One of the obvious areas of dysfunction is simply the kinds of things one sees when a grifter is the head of the party. To wit, via Politico: Trump campaign asks for cut of candidates’ fundraising when they use his name and likeness. “Beginning tomorrow, we ask that all candidates and committees who choose to use President Trump’s name, image, and likeness split a minimum of 5% of all fundraising solicitations to Trump National Committee JFC. This includes but ..read more

AP (“Maine joins compact to elect the president by popular vote but it won’t come into play this November“): Maine will become the latest to join a multistate effort to elect the president by popular vote with the Democratic governor’s announcement Monday that she’s letting the proposal become law without her signature. Under the proposed compact, each state would allocate all its electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote for president, regardless of how individual states voted in an election. But the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is on hold for now — and won’t pla ..read more

WaPo (“Speaker Johnson moves on foreign aid, possibly triggering vote to oust him”): House Speaker Mike Johnson is plowing ahead on a foreign aid plan that has roiled his conference and prompted two Republicans to push an effort to oust him from the chamber’s top job. But instead of the complex four-part plan he floated this week, Johnson now intends to try to pass five bills — one each for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Indo-Pacific allies, as well as a GOP wish list of foreign policy priorities and a fifth stand-alone bill to address widespread Republican demands to strengthen ..read more

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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain photo via Max Pixel POLITICO Europe opinion editor Jamie Dettmer declares, “Ukraine is heading for defeat.” Just ask a Ukrainian soldier if he still believes the West will stand by Kyiv “for as long as it takes.” That pledge rings hollow when it’s been four weeks since your artillery unit last had a shell to fire, as one serviceman complained from the front lines. It’s not just that Ukraine’s forces are running out of ammunition. Western delays over sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the f ..read more