Small Business Labs
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Forecasting the Future of Small Business by looking at social, demographic, business and technology trends that will impact small business formation and operation over the next decade. Focus on future trends.
Small Business Labs
11M ago
Between 2020 and 2023, the number of independent workers (freelancers, gig workers, independent contractors, solopreneurs, etc.) grew from 13.6 million in 2020 to 26 million in 2023, which is 91% (click on the chart below to enlarge)
This is stunningly faster than the 2011-2019 growth rate, which was about 2% per year.
This data comes from the 2023 MBO Partners State of Independence study series - the 13th year of this study.
And making this growth surge even more interesting, 2023 is the first year in the study that the number of full-time independents grew faster than the number ..read more
Small Business Labs
11M ago
As the chart below illustrates (click to enlarge), after a fall in 2020 due to business shutdowns, the number of independent workers (freelancers, solopreneurs, self-employed, gig workers, etc.) grew dramatically, increasing by 89% between 2020 - 2023.
This is roughly a 10x increase in the growth rate compared to its pre-pandemic trend line growth rate.
The data comes from the 2023 MBO Partners State of Independence study, the 13th year this study has been conducted.
But it's not just data from this study showing this shift. The U.S. Census collects monthly data ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Harvard Business Review's We're All Programmers Now explains that thanks generative AI (like ChatGPT), anyone can code.
Key quote from the article summary:
"Generative AI and other easy-to-use software tools can help employees with no coding background become adept programmers, or what the authors call citizen developers. By simply describing what they want in a prompt, citizen developers can collaborate with these tools to build entire applications—a process that until recently would have required advanced programming fluency."
The article focuses on what this means for corporation ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Forerunner Ventures is best known for funding early direct-to-consumer, online brands like Warby Parker. Bonobos and others.
Their latest investment thesis is "digitally native franchises," which they describe as online platforms that enable people to start their own business with meaningful ownership and flexibility, but also the playbook and support of a centralized platform.
As the Forerunner chart below shows (click to enlarge), they see digitally native franchises as providing independent workers more control, freedom, and financial upside than gig workers - and greater suppor ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
McKinsey recently released their 2023 Technology Trends Outlook. The list is pretty similar to last year's, which we also covered.
The one big difference from last year, unsurprisingly, is the addition of generative AI. The other 14 trends on this year's list are repeats from last year.
McKinsey has, in our opinion, one of the better descriptions of generative AI:
"Generative AI can automate, augment, and accelerate work by tapping into unstructured mixed-modality data sets to enable the creation of new content in various forms, such as text, video, code, and even protein sequences."
Alth ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Bain & Company is one of the Big 3 strategy consulting firms (along with McKinsey and BCG).
We follow all these firms because they do excellent research, and their work with leaders in both the private and public sectors means they have a lot of influence.
Bain's Better with Age: The Rising Importance of Older Workers covers the demographic reality that workforces worldwide are rapidly aging.
As the Bain chart below shows (click to enlarge), in the U.S., one-quarter of the workforce will be 55 or older by 2031.
Japan is even older, with almost 40% of its 2031 workforce 55 or older.
Bain's ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
The key quote from Pew Research's Self-employed people in the U.S. are more likely than other workers to be highly satisfied with their jobs is:
"Most self-employed workers (62%) say they are extremely or very satisfied with their job, compared with 51% of those who are not self-employed. They also express higher levels of enjoyment and fulfillment with their job."
As the Pew Chart below shows (click to enlarge), the self-employed also are more likely to find their job more enjoyable and fulfilling than other workers.
Regular readers know that almost all studies on the self-employed have found ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Yahoo Finance's Could Semi-Retirement Be Right For Me defines semi-retirement as:
"a transition stage to full retirement during which people usually work fewer hours, either at their former employers or in a new part-time job. Semi-retirement can generate additional income while also providing engagement, satisfaction and even better mental and physical health."
Generating income is a key reason many are semi-retired.
But as The Atlantic's Semi-Retirees Know the Key to Work-Life Balance points out, most semi-retirees seek more than income from their semi-retirement work.
And th ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Over the past few weeks, there's been a flurry of articles on "granfluencers" - older people earning money in the creator economy by posting on TikTok and other social media platforms.
Key quote from the New York Times article As Older TikTok Creators Flourish, Brands Are Signing Them Up:
"Older influencers have popped in popularity recently," Ms. Karwowski said. Over the past year to 18 months, she added, "it's really been accelerating‌."
CNN's Forget retirement. These Baby Boomers are amassing huge social media followings says a key driver is that more and more older people ar ..read more
Small Business Labs
1y ago
Every so often, we write an article knowing few people will read it. And let's face it, survey sample selection bias is not a hot topic.
But you should read this article because survey selection bias is a growing problem.
This is because easy-to-use online survey tools allow people who are untrained in survey methods to easily and quickly create and field surveys.
Schwab's Choiceology podcast Survey Says covers what selection bias is and why it's a problem.
The podcast starts with the story of the 1936 presidential election, which Franklin Roosevelt won in a landslide ov ..read more