Time to Retire a Cycle
Vision Financial Group
by
2M ago
Time looks ready to expire on the elevated short-term interest rates that investors have enjoyed over the past few years. For far longer than most probably expected, the Federal Reserve maintained restrictive interest rate policies on the economy to drive inflation out. The Federal Reserve's restrictive policies that introduced higher interest rates to the markets benefited Investors without much economic damage. But, the current interest rate policy and cycle won't last forever because it can eventually turn counterproductive to economic growth and employment ..read more
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Markets and Mystery Boxes
Vision Financial Group
by
4M ago
Higher interest rates in the US may be starting to countercyclically affect outside economies because of the strong demand for US dollars. When financial markets demand fewer non-US dollar assets, all those foreign exchange reserves go home to roost, increasing the odds that those international economies will experience renewed inflation threats ..read more
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Economic Quagmires and Global Dynamisms
Vision Financial Group
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6M ago
The 1970s of American history stand out not only for cultural shifts and political upheaval but also for a significant environmental awakening. The era witnessed a burgeoning awareness of the need for environmental protection as industrial pollution marred landscapes and tainted waterways. Legend has it that pollution in the Cuyahoga River in northeastern Ohio was so bad that a spark from an overpassing Cleveland railroad bridge ignited chemicals and debris throughout the river on fire ..read more
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Eye of the Beholder
Vision Financial Group
by
7M ago
Current market affairs offer a myriad of insights for Investors to consider. Economically, there's a prevailing sense of optimism and confidence permeating through various sectors of the market. This positive sentiment has translated into key trends, including surging stock prices, resilient real-estate valuations (despite higher mortgage rates), and stable interest rates on many fixed income securities ..read more
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Policy Updates & Time Lags
Vision Financial Group
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8M ago
The Federal Reserve (Fed) paused and held short-term interest rates flat in September. The decision made at the last Fed meeting was the first decision to pause since the Fed started its current rate cycle. The Fed may have kept short-term rates unchanged last month, but that comes after increasing rates a full 5% in less than 20 months ..read more
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Soft Landing? Or Not?
Vision Financial Group
by
8M ago
The first estimate showed that the US economy contracted again in the second quarter of this year. That marked a second consecutive decline in real expenditure growth. Generally, the economy is said to enter a recession when GDP falls in back-to-back quarters. However, it's a bit more complicated than that, as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) weighs many economic factors before officially dating a recession's start date ..read more
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The Current Rate Cycle
Vision Financial Group Blog
by
8M ago
The “term premium” in savings has gone missing from certain investments as interest rates have risen. Traditionally, this term premium represents additional compensation to investors for investing in longer-term investments, such as bonds ..read more
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Anatomy of an Upbeat Market
Vision Financial Group
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8M ago
The US index, comprised of thirty bellwether stocks, experienced its best month since 1976. A bellwether stock tends to show market leadership just like a sheep leading its flock with a bellwether tied around its neck. Last month's US equity returns were even more impressive, given that interest rates tied to economic activity also rose in October ..read more
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Restrictive Rate Cycle in the Background
Vision Financial Group
by
8M ago
March gave new insight into the restrictive rate cycle currently in force. Conditions are tight due to consumer price inflation. There are no easy answers on how to regain stable prices. Inflation is very much a monetary problem rooted in the behavior of psychology ..read more
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Journeying Down the Disinflation Road
Vision Financial Group
by
8M ago
In February, stock market volatility rose as interest rates moved higher. Short-term rates continued to advance due to the interest rate policies directed by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In only twelve months, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from practically zero to almost five percent ..read more
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