The following is a post by @sunset_shazz. The National Football League has, over time, become a passing league. The best, most analytically sophisticated teams build around the passing game. In 2018, the final four teams in the NFC and AFC Championship games enjoyed the top 4 passing offenses, in terms of efficiency. In 2019, run-first teams are typically built by dinosaurs who can barely dress themselves. The Philadelphia Eagles have made forward-thinking analytics a centerpiece of their strategy, and their fearless head coach is a protégé of one of the game’s great passing innovators; surely ..read more

The following is a post by @sunset_shazz.We have previously discussed in these pages the principal-agent problem, and how idiot principals (aka NFL owners) are to blame for suboptimal decision-making by agents (aka GMs and coaches). In an entertaining Twitter thread, some analytics nerds were discussing the use of RPOs and the implications for run/pass decision making. A turning point in the thread:Brian Burke believes that coaches are optimizing for success rate. They want to move the chains and string together first downs to form drives. If you get nearly 5 yards per rush on average there’s ..read more