The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably. As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same. Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century. The post An Electoral College Time Cap ..read more

Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in nearly all cases. Democrats may be poised to ride the backlash in this swing state, as some local Republicans are trying to distance themselves from the ruling. Meanwhile, the Nebraska legislature's debate over its electoral vote allocation could further elevate Arizona's importance in the Electoral College. The post Making Sense of Arizona’s New Electoral Landscape appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens. The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls. The post Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we are extending an invite to several events the Center for Politics is holding next week (April 5-6) as part of our 25th Anniversary Gala, as well as looking at the growing number of vacancies in the House, a Democratic retirement in New Hampshire, and a notable special state House election in Alabama. The post Notes on the State of Politics: March 28, 2024 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

We take a look at the ultimately not-close Ohio Republican Senate primary and other key results from the down-ballot primaries there and in Illinois. Right before the 2022 Ohio Senate primary, we asked a trusted source about rumblings that state Sen. Matt Dolan (R) was making a late charge in that race. This person’s response to the Dolan hype: “Just wishful thinking on part of moderate Rs in media.” Two years later, and the quote still applies. The post In Key Ohio Senate Primary, Republicans Go with Trump Again appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Although many factors affect the pool of available vice presidential candidates, the two primary filters relate to party identification and past governmental experience. In particular, major party presidential nominees invariably choose a running mate who shares their party identification and who presently holds or previously held a small group of high governmental offices signifying political experience. These are discussed below in turn. The post The Republican Veepstakes 2024, Part Two: What History Suggests About Trump’s Options appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

In this week’s edition of Notes on the State of Politics, we’re looking down the ballot—both at the overall House map now that redistricting is likely done, and at some important primaries coming up in the Midwest next week, highlighted by the Republican Senate primary in Ohio. The post Notes on the State of Politics: March 13, 2024 appeared first on Sabato's Crystal Ball ..read more

Following Super Tuesday and with both President Biden and former President Trump effectively set to be their respective party’s presidential nominee, we thought it was a good time to look ahead to one of the big political questions of the next several months: Who will Trump pick as his running mate? There is no one better to analyze Trump’s vice presidential choice than Joel Goldstein, a longtime Crystal Ball contributor and a leading expert on the presidential ticket’s second slot. In Part One of a two-part series, Joel goes over how the selection process has evolved, the early movement in th ..read more

Dear Readers: This is our only planned issue of the Crystal Ball this week; we’ll be back next week. Below, we take a look at the ultimately not-close Ohio Republican Senate primary and other key results from the down-ballot primaries there and in Illinois. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Both Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got their man in the Ohio GOP Senate primary on Tuesday night, as businessman Bernie Moreno (R) blew open what polls, in aggregate, suggested was a close race. A major Democratic outside spending group connected to Schumer ..read more

Dear Readers: This is the second part of VP expert Joel Goldstein’s look at the 2024 Republican Veepstakes. After exploring some unusual aspects of the 2024 Veepstakes as it unfolded in the first weeks of this year and some unique aspects of former President Donald Trump as a running mate selector, the analysis now turns to consider the other two variables of VP selection—the pool of candidates and the context in which the choice arises. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If he sticks to history—and he very well may not—Donald Trump’s eventual vice presidential selection ..read more