Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. It is likely that we will see pandemic lows for weekly deaths in the next several weeks.  That is welcome news! For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 are now below the low of 5,386 last year. COVID Metrics   Now Week Ago Goal Hospitalized2 5,195 6,055 ≤3,0001 Deaths per Week2 648 806 ≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly fo ..read more

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Benefitting from a mix of headliners and events from NASCAR to Madonna to several college basketball tournaments, Las Vegas visitation neared 3.7M in March 2024, up +0.4% YoY and nearly matching Mar 2019. With a tough comparison to record‐breaking convention attendance last March when the destination hosted the triennial CONEXPO‐CON/AGG tradeshow (142,000), convention attendance this March saw a ‐37.2% YoY decrease. Overall hotel occupancy reached 85.3% for the month (‐3.0 pts YoY). After breaking the record for bo ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased, Multi-family Decreased in March Brief excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies decreased in March, and multi-family serious delinquencies decreased again after the huge surge in January. ... Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family delinquencies rate declined to 0.34% in March, down from 0.35% in February, and down from 0.44% in January. This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housin ..read more

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March, down slightly from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023. Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will continue to slow over the next year. The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last ..read more

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in March and real PCE increas ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 77.9 ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Observations on the Recent Surge in Net International Migration A brief excerpt: NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on demographics and the impact on household growth and housing demand. Last November, Lawler reviewed the most recent Census projections: Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Population Projections and Household Slowdown. Today he discusses the recent surge in Net International Migration. From Tom Lawler: One of the biggest demographic stories of the past two years has been the recent surge in net ..read more

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2023. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2023 was 3,591,328, down 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate was 54.4 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, down 3% from 2022. The total fertility rate was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022. Birth rates declined for females in age groups 15–19 through 35–39 and were unchanged for females ages 10–14 and for women ages 40–44 and 45–49 in 2023. The birth rate for teenagers ages 15–19 declined by 3% in 202 ..read more

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Ascended 3.4% in March Pending home sales in March climbed 3.4%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the Northeast and South registered decreases but the Midwest and West improved. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 78.2 in March. Year over year, pending transactions were up 0.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in ..read more

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a ..read more