LinkUp’s January JOLTS forecast is 10.88 million, a 1.2% decline from the JOLTS reported 11.01 million in December. On March 8, 2023 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for January, which will include the much-anticipated job openings data for the month. LinkUp’s job listing month end averages sourced directly from company websites in December and January continued to decline leading to a forecasted drop in JOLTS ..read more

Active U.S. job listings increased a slight 0.6% month-over-month. According to LinkUp job listing data, collected daily and directly from company websites, this is the first overall increase seen since listings peaked in March 2022. Despite more than 100,000 reported job cuts that occurred throughout January – the largest since 2020 – our job market data is showing promising growth. New job listings increased by 8.0% through January – a stark comparison to December’s 3.2% decline – and removed listings increased by 6.5% compared to just 3.5% the month prior. CLOSED DURATION Closed duration ..read more

Given the urgency to get our non-farm payroll forecast published as quickly as possible, we’ll provide additional analysis and commentary later this week and focus here primarily on our labor demand data for January and the forecast itself. Having said that, however, we’ll start with the abridged version of the commentary which can be summarized quite succinctly: The soft landing that we and others on ‘Team Soft Landing’ have, for months and months, been forecasting would happen is now happening. In fact, it might be the case that the wheels have touched down and everyone can begin breathing a ..read more

LinkUp has just released its Q4 2022 Economic Indicator Report that looks at labor demand at a macro level. Active job listings on company websites continued to drop throughout last quarter, aligning with declines observed in active and new job listings in October, November, and December. There were fewer new listings (-8.5%) than in Q3 and the number of job listings being removed was also down (-10.9%) in Q4. Report Highlights According to our data, states with the largest declines in job listings from Q3 to Q4 include: Nevada (-12.0%) Arizona (-11.2%) Oregon (-11.0%) Colorado ..read more

LinkUp’s December JOLTS forecast is 10.14 million, a 3% decline from the JOLTS reported 10.46 million in November. On February 1, 2023  the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for December, which will include the much-anticipated job openings data for the month. LinkUp’s job listings data sourced directly from company websites in November and December continued to decline leading to a forecasted drop in JOLTS ..read more

Labor demand continues to cool as total active job listings dropped 6.9% month-over-month in the U.S. for the month of November and declined across all industries and occupations. LinkUp data shows employers created fewer listings in November, as the count of new job listings dropped 12.3% month-over-month. Additionally, fewer listings were taken down, as removed listings fell by 3.2% from October to November. November’s decline follows an annual trend seen since March of this year. Total active listings have fallen 21.4% since peaking in March at 5.97M. The number of new monthly listings ha ..read more

As the calendar turns to 2023, it’s been deeply engrossing and quite entertaining to read the commentary around what transpired in the US economy over the past year, what everyone thought was going to happen, and what people believe is in store for the coming year. As the WSJ put it in a recent article entitled Wall Street and the Fed Flopped in Trying to Predict 2022, “Almost everyone on Wall Street and in Washington got 2022 wrong. The Federal Reserve expected 2021’s inflation surge to be transitory. It wasn’t. Core inflation climbed to a four-decade high this fall, nearly triplin ..read more

On January 4, 2023 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for November, which will include the much anticipated job openings data for the month. LinkUp’s job listings data sourced directly from company websites in October and November continued to decline leading to a forecasted drop in JOLTS. LinkUp’s November JOLTS forecast is ​​9,911,000, a 4.1% decline from 10,334,000 in October ..read more

In May we wrote about the increase in announced layoffs, especially in the Tech sector.  Since then, the trend toward more layoffs–particularly in Tech–has increased.   Earlier this month, global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas published an estimate of job cuts for November that was up 127% over October and the highest since January 2021.   Given all of these newly announced layoffs, we thought it would be an interesting time to check back in to see if job listings still signal these layoffs using data from https://layoffs.fyi/. Before doing so, it is imp ..read more

Because we published most of our job market commentary on Monday, we will jump straight into LinkUp’s labor demand data for November and our non-farm payrolls (NFP) forecast for the month. In November, labor demand resumed its downward plummet as total US job vacancies indexed directly from company websites around the world dropped by nearly 300,000 from October (-5.2%), while new job openings fell by roughly 230,000 (-11.7%) and the number of jobs removed from corporate career portals rose by roughly 13,000 (0.6%). The LinkUp 10,000, which tracks US job vacancies for the 10,000 global employ ..read more