The US State Department was too afraid of Russia blocking the Black Sea corridor in November.  ( No stones were  left unturned ). CIA involvement in the wheat trade. A conduit has been meticulously planned via Poland with an assist ..read more

The U.S Midwest is persistently priced above the transportation arbitrage is an eye-catcher because the U.S also the cheapest origin for nitrogen in the world. If there is a shortage of nitrogen then why the world market (NOLA pricing center) is $100/st cheaper than the Midwest. It ain't about U.S supply and demand fundamentals either: @HH $6 U.S ammonia is manufactured at $11.83/mmbtu cost but is quoted above $38/mmbtu. -Our assertion is that we are witnessing is the biggest organized wealth transfer from the farmer group unreported in the history of the United States of America. This is how ..read more

We've entered a net short position on Euronav. Euronav is market underperformer in its own physical market. In a number of aspects, the balance of risk with this company is negatively skewed. What we've found is that Euronav's realized TCEs are materially lower than the corresponding market during Q1-2020. Additionally we've exploring a controversial accounting treatment of their fuel costs which forced us to restated their reported earnings.  ..read more

Sheds a light on a model that doesn't involve the old school houses and trade finance but gives an ability to trade big VaR when good opportunity comes up. Leveraging Goldman internal flow ( alternate the credit HY research, macro rates, economic team, China EM, DM, Houston FICC) views. Makes you really think what is necessary and what is "fluff ..read more

The Hin Leong Trading Collapse Angels and Demons In reality, in Hin Leong it's HSBC, Societe Generale and Standard Chartered and ABN AMRO who were trading Hin Leong losses between each other, not the reverse.  ..read more

Europe switches to a net corn importer this year. Cash values in Italy, Spain North Africa are outrageously rich. At Matif = 166Z, shippers can price off US Corn/DDGs and virtually from anywhere ..read more

The Midwest processors crush soybean  at +$3/bu margin. Under strong oilseeds S/D fundamentals and bullish tones are soybeans traded at a fair-value ..read more

Dollar shortages in the FX market create credit exposures for the funds, banks specialized in commodity financing and traders (those particularly those exposed to the soft-commodities). In Geneva the stakes are high. It is because these traders are into a strategy in which they borrow money (U.S Dollar) at a low-interest rate in order to invest in a commodity asset that is likely to provide a return (higher) into another currency: their activity is a carry trade at its core...  Short Dollars (Long EM), long commodity, do work but in 'non-normal times' could be proven to be a negative ..read more

Risk capacity is a co-function of the commodity firm financial surface of the market risk level. You would thought the Contango structure would be giving commodity traders free money arbitrage. That is simply not the case. Simply put, there are different contango at different risk levels ..read more

Hedge-To-Arrive Contracts diversify the marketing options that a producer has to price crops. They enable locking the FUT price and participate in long basis position in exchange of a physical delivery.  ..read more