The Goldilocks Effect: Phoenix's Spring Housing Market Hits the Balance We are now in the heart of the spring selling season and yet it doesn’t feel like prime time. The market has been quieter than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. The greater Phoenix market has drifted into a balance - as homes for sale have slowly accumulated and demand has waned under the pressure of rising interest rates. The numbers below provided by Tom Ruff of the Stat as well as the Cromford Report – confirm 2024 first quarter lackluster numbers: • In the first quarter, demand was approximately 5% lower ..read more

The Greater Phoenix real estate market is not much of a headline grabber.  In fact, the marketplace reminds me of a Saturday Night Live skit I watched recently “Pilates – so hard and so boring”. Yup, we see some similarities.  The market has slowly eroded into a sort of balance between supply and demand. However, as we so often have pointed out, to paint the valley with one paintbrush is simplistic and inaccurate.  Specific price points and areas behave uniquely. Of the 17 largest municipalities, 10 currently favor sellers – they are in descending strength: Chandler, Gilbert, Gl ..read more

 Now that the peak home buying season is upon us – we have a little more data on how the market is performing.  No pearl clutching headlines here, but still, we find it interesting (accusations of being a geek might be valid) and hope you will as well. – Supply is up 14% over last year but still 31% below normal according to the Cromford Report.  Compare the following numbers just for contrast.  We have as of the writing of this report – 16,886 active listings vs. 4400 just 2 years ago.  Wow.  Below normal looks pretty normal by comparison. As usual though, the nu ..read more

We are only 45+ days into 2024 and we are anxiously trying to read the tea leaves for what this year will bring. The fact that this is an election year leads most people to assume that the election will be an outsized influence on housing, specifically mortgage rates and pricing. We love hearing the theories, but it is not true. To quote the Cromford Report “the main influence on the housing market comes from policies, not the elections themselves”. Now there is some truth that the stock market responds to elections – at least the last 4 elections saw the stock market respond positively afterw ..read more

The Housing Market Shifts Slightly Towards Sellers 2024 began with a slight advantage for home sellers. December typically ends with less active listings every year as a number of listings expire on the 31 Additionally, we saw a little bump in buyer demand as interest rates became more attractive. Those two small changes pushed the market out of the balanced zone (which only lasted 7 weeks) to one that slightly favors sellers. But saying we are in a slight sellers’ market is still misleading as most generalities are. The luxury market has performed completely differently than the rest of the m ..read more

With very few exceptions, the housing market begins every year with a question: what will this year’s housing market bring? The truth is that projecting beyond a few months enters one into the field of guessing, as there is no real estate Nostradamus. But there are data points (courtesy of the Cromford Report) that tell us where we are and what the next few months may look like. The 2023 Housing Market ended the year in “balance”. Of course that is a bit misleading – as there are parts of the valley favoring buyers (think outlying areas such as Buckeye, Maricopa, Pinal County) and others favor ..read more

“The bad news is nothing lasts forever. The good news is nothing lasts forever” J. Cole The 2023 Housing Market is closing out in “balance”. Of course that is a bit misleading – as there are parts of the valley favoring buyers (think outlying areas such as Buckeye, Maricopa, Pinal County) and others favoring sellers (Tolleson, Anthem, Apache Junction, El Mirage, Sun Lakes, Chandler, Laveen, and Fountain Hills). Interest rates seems to be the crystal ball that will answer that question. December is seasonally the slowest time of year for real estate. But rates declining from 8.0% in October to ..read more

The Greater Phoenix market has been steadily shifting away from sellers. Within a few days of this writing we will be in a balanced market overall. Eleven cities already are balanced or favor buyers – eighteen favor sellers but are eroding. If you are a buyer – this is a wonderful time to buy. Seasonally, there are less buyers shopping in the 4 quarter than any other time of year. Additionally, interest rates have had the largest drop in 2023 last week – resulting in a rise in loan applications. In addition, sellers have been subjected to longer marketing times - courtesy of the market shift a ..read more

It can be difficult to write about a slow moving train such as our Greater Phoenix housing market.  The market is remarkably quiet right now making poor fodder for attention grabbing headlines.  Both buyers and sellers seem content to sit on the sidelines waiting.  For what?  For a reason to act.  The most obvious motivator would be lower interest rates. Demand is currently 22% below normal. In fact, it dropped below normal in June of 2022 where it has remained ever since.  Not shockingly, that shift was a response to the jump in interest rates.   But the rea ..read more

The Valley Real Estate Market – It’s a Dry Heat The market in the last few weeks is in the midst of a slight cooling trend (a phrase that sounds like an oxymoron given the record heat the valley is enduring). This is evidenced by the slowly increasing inventory. The seller advantage in most areas and price points continues to hold – even if at a rather subdued level. Additionally, the luxury market goes quiet in the summer, as those with a choice flee the valley. According to the Cromford Report, the active supply of homes for sale is down 27% compared to this time last year and down a whoppin ..read more