Blog 23: How Bayes Bets on Football
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1M ago
Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference or prediction are very different. How different? This simple example highlights the difference and the argument in favor of using Bayesian posterior probabilities ..read more
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No. 10 – Always do Subgroup IDENTIFICATION
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
You may have heard, “Always do subgroup analysis, but never believe them.” Don't believe this ..read more
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No. 11: Some Beliefs in Priors
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
The probability that the null hypothesis is true is 0.50. How should we interpret that and then write it down mathematically ..read more
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Blog 20: I Am (Probably) Wrong, Maybe
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
A promising treatment for Covid-19 comes from a most unusual source - an anti-depressant treatment. Is the evidence compelling? What should we believe ..read more
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Blog 19: We Won’t Get Fooled Again, Again
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
Many clinician researchers are attempting to "repurpose" old treatments for COVID-19. How shold we evaluate purported positive findings in a small, but rigorous, clinical trial ..read more
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No. 8: Let’s Get Real – Bayes and Biomarkers
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
How do we know when an observed effect is real or spurious ..read more
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No. 16: Beware Caesar – Alcohol Consumption and Alzheimer’s Disease
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
Published research from respectable journals and reported by renowned press outlets can be very misleading and of questionable importance. But it helps keep funding for the researchers and readership for the news media ..read more
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No. 15: Subgroups, Multiplicity and Bayes – A Case Study
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
Alzheimer's Disease has had many failures, and various companies have had mixed results. Bayesian approaches can bring clarity to the inference and primary question: "Does this treatment work ..read more
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No. 13: Unconsciously Biased and Consciously Unbiased
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
Implicit models in the back of our minds can creep into explicit models creating biased predictions that have societal implications ..read more
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No. 12: Models – Implicit and Explicit
Analytix Thinking Blog » Bayesian Thinking
by Steve Ruberg
1y ago
If we fail to acknowledge that we have biases and assumptions that influence our assessment of 'objective facts,' then we delude ourselves. Our perception of reality and how we judge evidence is colored by our beliefs which arise from our specific experiences ..read more
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