Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It ..read more

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks  join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the nascent recoveries in the Euro area and UK,  their varied implications for inflation and expectations for monetary policy easing. Despite raising our sights on Western European growth in recent weeks, we continue to expect the ECB to begin easing in June and the Bank of England from next quarter. A backdrop of a sustained sub-par performance lowers the bar to start the easing process. But the improvement in current growth prospects presents a stickier inflation challenge for the BoE than the ECB. This is reflected in o ..read more

In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely see Chair Powell back away from the current dot plot and point to June as a time for a broader reassessment of the policy path ahead. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jay Barry This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosu ..read more

Speakers:   Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the monthly global inflation report and unpack implications for central bank monetary policy.   This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683349-0 for more information; please visit ..read more

Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so, what would that mean for inflation and how would central banks react?   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 ..read more

Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit w ..read more

Speakers:   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of ..read more

Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates, which should be reinforced by a US immigration surge that is boosting both supply and demand. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase &a ..read more

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.  Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core inflation to ease modestly to a roughly 3% pace next quarter. Less clear is the case for the step ..read more

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report. This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GMV4YY4X for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.   ..read more