For Buyers: ­Rates defied industry predictions once again and rose over a point from 5.99% to 7.1% between February 2nd and March 2nd. For the past 4 weeks, rates have hovered in the upper 6% range, figuratively “pinching the hose” on demand during the popular Spring season for buyers. At 9,001, contracts are at their 4th lowest count since 2005, the lowest counts were in 2006-2008 and normal range is 11,000-13,000. Buyers are not the only ones holding back due to higher mortgage rates, sellers are too. New listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS are the lowest ever recorded going back at ..read more

For Buyers: ­The Spring season is upon Greater Phoenix. February hosts the Waste Management Open and Super Bowl LVII this year, putting the metro area in the national spotlight more than usual during our peak season for weather, tourism, and buyer activity. This, combined with mortgage rates briefly stabilizing between 6.0-6.2% in January, contributed to an 86% increase in accepted contracts since the beginning of the year. Six major cities moved out of balanced markets into seller’s markets over the last 4 weeks: Phoenix, Avondale, Glendale, Tempe, Mesa, and Gilbert. Two cities came out of b ..read more

For Buyers: Buyer demand has been more reactive to mortgage rates than normal, but that’s to be expected at the rate of increase we’ve seen this year. In terms of affordability in Greater Phoenix, a household making the median family income should normally be able to afford 60-75% of what’s sold. That measure for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2022 was only 22%. Some believe it would take years for affordability to return to a normal range unless sales prices drop dramatically, but that’s not necessarily true. As rising mortgage rates have quickly pushed affordability down, declining mortgage ra ..read more

For Buyers: ­Greater Phoenix as a whole has been in a balanced market since August but is expected to glide into a buyer’s market by mid-November. Buckeye, Maricopa and Queen Creek entered a buyer’s market in July. Surprise, Chandler, Gilbert and Tempe followed in August. Goodyear, Peoria and Avondale joined in September with Mesa and Goodyear falling in line by October. Phoenix is expected to succumb this month within a matter of days. The only holdouts remain in the Northeast Valley cities of Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek and Scottsdale. The 2022 peak of price was achie ..read more

For Buyers: The price reductions keep coming. Last week when mortgage rates hit 7.0%, the Greater Phoenix housing market responded with 4,427 price reductions, 24% of all active properties in the MLS. At least 50% of those dropped their price by $12,000 or more. September saw 1,372 closings involving seller closing cost assistance to the buyer, equating to 23% of MLS sales, with a median concession of $7,000. This is a 334% increase from last June’s count of just 316 sales involving concessions. New home sales through the MLS showed 33% with concessions, and 50% at $10,000 or more. Ope ..read more

  For Buyers: The percentage of closings with seller-paid closing costs continues to grow as August and September to date range between 12-13% of total sales in Greater Phoenix, inching closer to the normal range of 25-28%. Areas on the outskirts, such as Casa Grande, Maricopa, Coolidge and San Tan Valley in Pinal County and Wittmann, Tolleson and Buckeye in western Maricopa County all have 20-30% of sales closing with concessions. These areas have more than their fair share of new home subdivisions that contribute to this measure as 32% of new homes that closed in the MLS in the ..read more

   For Buyers: Good news for buyers, the number of closings with seller-paid closing costs rose 27% in July compared to June equating to 7% of all closings for the month. That may not sound like much, but that’s the highest it’s been since March 2021. Prior to 2020, the established baseline for seller-paid closing cost assistance averaged 25-28% of MLS sales and over the past 15 months the average has been just 3-4.5%. The increase is expected to continue as large cash-based investors have pulled back their acquisitions, leaving many sellers to cater to normal buyers once aga ..read more

  For Buyers: Welcome to a balanced market*, how quickly the tables have turned! While seller markets are ideal for the not-so-perfect home, balanced markets are ideal for the not-so-perfect buyer. This means that buyers who have been recently rejected due to lower down payments, non-conventional financing, or need for closing cost assistance will find sellers are now willing to work with them in this new environment. Supply across all price points is up, with 53% of active listings added by new home developers and investors. Builders especially are dropping prices and offering un ..read more

  For Buyers: Market conditions continue to get better for buyers undeterred by rising mortgage rates.  Over the last 10 weeks, there has been a surge of new listings in every price point over $400K, pushing the supply level up 113% over this time last year. The surge in new listings is not happening under $400K, however rising interest rates have caused demand in this price range to decline. As a result, supply is rising on the low-end due to buyers pulling back, not excessive new listings. In a nutshell, when sellers have to compete, buyers win. What they win at this stage ..read more

  For Buyers: It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for, less competition and more supply in Greater Phoenix! Active supply is up 40% from this time last year, but all that gain has been achieved over the last 6 weeks with an increase of 45%. This is an enormous change from April’s report where supply was only up 16% over last year and still below the count reported on January 1st. As of this report, the supply count is 7,157, still 72% below normal for this time of year but rising quickly. The annual change in inventory is impressive, but it market. Inventory listed between $400K’s the sh ..read more