The world is an uncertain place—it always has been and always will be. The recent past is a perfect reflection of that reality—a global pandemic, multiple military conflicts, monetary policy shocks, natural disasters, and the list could go on. Yet the power of human ingenuity and the resilience it has helped develop means that we are constantly improving the way in which we face these dynamic challenges. In a period of time when optimism seems scarce and criticism and concerns appear abundant, we are optimistic about an investment theme anchored on scalable innovation and a deliberate transiti ..read more

How should investors make sense of what is happening in the markets and what is happening across global economies?  It’s admittedly THE million-dollar question.  Short-term interest rates are the highest they’ve been since the global financial crisis in 2008/2009.  As the two charts below illustrate, companies in the US are facing declining profit margins and are taking a cautious approach to future capital expenditures.  Lastly, real estate markets across the US are having to contend with a financing market that has become both expensive—as a result of Fed policy—and less ..read more

There has been a lot for investors to digest throughout this year—the war in Ukraine, persistently high inflation, one of the fastest rate hiking cycles in history and the residual impact of a globally disjointed COVID response and reopening policy.  The result has been broad-based asset class declines, in which—as the chart below highlights—only commodities and cash have been spared.  Source: Blackrock (as of October 31, 2022) The magnitude and the breadth of the decline stand out when viewed through the context of the last decade.  In addition, one of the more unique nuances i ..read more

Legacy and Learning Matter has recently made a decision that has significant meaning even if the result seems like an insignificant change. We take a comprehensive, integrated approach to managing wealth and have framed this as follows: Investment Management, Wealth Planning & Coordination, and Culture & Legacy. Truth be told, as we have learned more about what makes families successful and thrive, the word legacy does not capture the entirety of this critical aspect. The Oxford Dictionary defines legacy as “a gift of property by will, a bequest; or anything handed down from the past ..read more

As the third quarter draws to a close, we find ourselves in one of the first prolonged down markets since the global financial crisis.  In a way, it is natural to believe that “this time is different” because, it has been.  The previous bear market during COVID and the “almost” bear market in Q4 2018 were very quickly resolved—in both cases, the markets had recovered from their lows within about 3 months.  Ironically, we are now faced with the consequences of the mechanisms that allowed for those rapid rebounds—namely easy and accommodative monetary policy by global central bank ..read more

While the official advance release of Q2 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis will not be until later this month, the Atlanta Fed produces their GDPNow forecast, which is designed to be a “live” tracker of economic growth that adjusts to various data releases throughout the quarter.  Based on the latest release this week, it estimates Q2 GDP as having declined by 1.2%.  If this estimate holds true—which is admittedly a big “if”—this would imply, by the most basic definition, that the US economy has entered a recession.  On the inflation front, this week’s release of June cor ..read more

Earlier this year, we wrote about the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the markets were reacting negatively to the news of the conflict, in reality inflation and Fed policy had already been weighing on investors’ minds.  With the news of the FOMC’s decision to raise interest rates by 50bps last week and the corresponding volatility that has returned in both equity and bond markets, it seems investors have awoken to the reality that the economic conditions moving forward will prove more challenging and less accommodative than in the recent past.  Over the last few m ..read more

We spent a lot of time last year discussing estate and income tax planning in anticipation of possible tax law changes hinging on the outcome of the United States Presidential and Senate elections. While we now have clarity on the election outcomes, we are still in a position of needing to make significant estate and income tax decisions without complete clarity around potential changes in tax law. It feels like the new normal …     What we do know is the proposed tax bills provide an indication that higher estate and income tax rates are likely, which, for us, means taking a proacti ..read more

When you’ve been investing long enough, you develop a certain resilience and respect for the volatility of the markets as they swing between periods of fear and euphoria.  The day to day swings make for anxious moments, but should rarely (if ever) represent the justification for making any long-term investment decisions.  Today, we are faced with the fact that the predicted military conflict between Russia and the Ukraine has become a reality. Before we go into the investment analysis, I wanted to share this first: given all of the challenges we have faced globally over the last two ..read more

“What can I expect my portfolio to do for me going forward?”  This is one of the most common things we hear from Matter families. While the question seems simple enough, the answer is often layered with nuance, disclaimers, and numerous variables. Unlike the weather, in finance, the closer the time horizon, the less reliable the forecast is. It’s simply impossible for anyone to know what’s brewing in the near term. Howard Marks of Oaktree wrote a great memo on forecasts a few months back and it is worth the read.   That being said, we do believe we can p ..read more