The Value Betting Blog
27 FOLLOWERS
At The Value Betting Blog, we bring together Betting Strategy, Betting Systems, Bookmaker Analysis, and a whole lot more. From AI Machine Learning algorithms for Sports Betting to the absolute basics, we've got you covered.
The Value Betting Blog
3w ago
SA World: Leveling Up Your Gaming Experience and Easing The Builders Into Gaming Creation
Are you on the hunt for a gaming world where you can have a blast while reaping epic rewards? Or maybe you're seeking a platform that embraces both traditional and blockchain gaming communities. All you need is "SA World" — your one-stop Web3 gaming destination, offering an extensive selection of rewarding games alongside a comprehensive suite of streamlined and efficient game management tools.
SA World – An enormous game store expanded from the well-known Web3 game Summoners Arena
Historically, SA World ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
True Odds Calculator
The fundamental basis to beat the bookmakers is to always bet over the True Odds.
Do you know them, do you take them into account at the time of betting?
If not, you are a ship without sails no rudder and the day of your capsizing as a bettor is near.
This true odds calculator is all you need to make sure you bet with value.
I’ll leave it here, and just below I’ll explain how to use it and why and when do you need to remove the margin of the bookmakers.
Summary
What are the true odds?
As you know, (and if not, you should), the betting odds are related to the probabilities ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
An arbitrage bet, or arb, in sports betting is when a bettor places 2+ bets on the same event using 2+ sportsbooks in order to lock in a risk-free return. Although this may sound too good to be true, it’s not!
This is possible due to sportsbooks having different odds for the same event. Unlike financial markets, in sports betting there is no single standard line or odds calculation formula that sportsbooks use, odds making is completely upto the sportsbooks themselves. Thus, when odds get out of sync on 2+ sportsbooks, arbitrage can exist. Of course, arbitrage is not extremely common, but it’s ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
This one is pretty cool, even by our standards.. below is our advanced betting simulation; a sports betting calculator that shows the efficacy of your betting system based on a few basic metrics.
Check it out: (and scroll down for a full explanation)
P-Value and EMDD calculator
Number of bets
Number of simulations
Yield
%
X (u.)
Average Bet Size
Y (%)
Average Weighted Odds
Calculate
Results
PROFIT:
EXPECTED MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN (EMDD):
50
HITRATE:
MONTECARLO AVERAGE MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN (XMDD):
50
PROFIT PER BET (MU):
MEDIAN MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
Having your betting account limited is a frustrating inevitability for profitable sports bettors.
A ‘no limit bookmaker’ would be a godsend. Well.. ask and you shall receive. They do exist.
Personally, I think it’s pretty poor form to cut someone off for winning. Shouldn’t the possibility of losing be inherent in any company that’s built on competing with people? That’s what a bookmaker is, a company vs consumer proposition where they set every metric, aiming to stack it in their favour to win. Yet when they fail to do so, they don’t try and win, they call you a name and run away.
Let me be cr ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
The rise of betting exchanges over the last decade has opened the punting world up to a sea of new systems, new ways to bet, and new profitable opportunities. But which is the best betting exchange?
I’ll guide you through the list and tell you who comes out on top!
I have just read surely the best article ever written about Betting Exchanges. Complete, serious, to the detail… All what you want to know about the different exchanges is here. Congrats @TVBBlog.https://t.co/BeZMd0d7zT
— Nishikori, Tennis PRO bettor (@nishikoripicks) October 19, 2020
First, if you don’t understand what a betting ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
Expected Value (EV) is the most simple of all betting equations:
Expected Value is the predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence
Simply, Expected Value is the average result you should expect to receive from the given bet or equation
Expected Value Calculator For Betting:
Here is the formula in its raw form
(Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing) =
As is obligatory in any mathematics explanation, let’s explain with a coin toss.
A coin toss is 50/50 right ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
There is a lot of confusion when it comes to professional sports betting. Is it a daily grind, or is it passive and algorithmic? Do you wait and pick your spots, or do you attack the market aggressively?
The answer: all of the above.
From tipsters to machine learning algorithms, matched bettors to sports traders; there are a whole host of ways you can be a profitable bettor.
Today we are going to get a look inside the mind of a Sports Trader, Harout Massoyan (@betlikeharout) has been making waves (and money) trading the markets full-time for a couple of years now.
I was lucky enough to intervi ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
6M ago
In our previous article, we introduced three ways of testing your skill in sports betting:
Betting with a small bankroll (or no bankroll, logging ‘fake’ bets in a spreadsheet)
Backtesting
Closing Line Value
In this article, I will explain other ways of testing your skill and designing a betting strategy by following one of these three methods:
Measuring the p-value of your backtest
Forward testing
Blind betting
Measure The p-value Of Your Backtest
A backtest is a way of testing your method with past data. You will need a sports events database with at least:
Date, so that your events can ..read more
The Value Betting Blog
2y ago
True Odds Calculator
The fundamental basis to beat the bookmakers is to always bet over the True Odds.
Do you know them, do you take them into account at the time of betting?
If not, you are a ship without sails no rudder and the day of your capsizing as a bettor is near.
This true odds calculator is all you need to make sure you bet with value.
I’ll leave it here, and just below I’ll explain how to use it and why and when do you need to remove the margin of the bookmakers.
Summary
What are the true odds?
As you know, (and if not, you should), the betting odds are related to the probabilitie ..read more