The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. The AUD has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chan ..read more

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. On the other hand, the CHF appreciated substantially following the higher than expected Swiss CPI figures last Thursday. The market paired back a little the very dovish pricing for the SNB and now sees just a 60% chance of a rate cu ..read more

Prior -1.0%; revised to -1.1% Looking at the breakdown: Intermediate goods +0.1% Capital goods +1.8% Durable consumer goods +0.1% Non-durable consumer goods +0.4% Energy -1.8% Not too positive in the details as the drag on the headline mainly comes from a drop in energy prices. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com ..read more

It's been a fun start to May trading but don't rest on your laurels just yet. While watchful eyes are on the US inflation data next week, we still have this week to go through first. And on the calendar, there are major central bank meetings to be wary of. The BOE and RBA will feature in that regard, so is there anything that we should look out for? The BOE policy decision will be on Thursday but it should be a non-event for the most part. The first rate cut is currently priced in for August. So, it's still all about the data over the next two months. There should be minimal to no change in th ..read more

This is one of the pairs highlighted earlier in the day here, in relation to the dollar's vulnerability. After having closed back just under its 200-day moving average (blue line) on Friday, buyers are now looking to make a move again. Price is climbing up to 1.2580 and looking to breach the key technical level at 1.2547. Keep above that and there will be more breathing room on the way up. There is still the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower in the last two months at 1.2596 though. But beyond that, the 100-day moving average (red line) will be the next key line in the sand for cabl ..read more

Prior -5.9 That marks seven straight readings now that the index has improved, with this being the highest since February 2022. Of note, we're seeing economic expectations in Germany no longer in negative territory - the first time since March 2022. That being said, the overall situation is still weak-ish at the balance for the euro area. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com ..read more

Services PMI 53.3 vs. 52.9 expected and 51.5 prior. Composite PMI 51.7 vs. 51.4 expeced and 50.3 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 51.7 (Mar: 50.3). 11-month high. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 53.3 (Mar: 51.5). 11-month high. Service sector recovery drives growth in April, but price pressures build. Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This looks pretty nice. Service providers have now expanded their activity for the third consecutive month, putting an end to th ..read more

Domestic sight deposits CHF 461.5 bn vs CHF 467.3 bn prior It's a slight drop in Swiss sight deposits but nothing out of the ordinary. The overall levels are holding since the start of the year: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com ..read more

Prior 50.1 Composite PMI 50.6 vs 50.5 prelim Prior 47.7 It's a mild revision to the preliminary estimates as both the German services and composite readings are at 10-month highs. The good news is that activity is picking up with new business also facing an upturn. However, price pressures remain stubborn and will be one to watch in the months ahead. Service firms raised their own prices on the month as cost inflation remains well above the historical trend rate. HCOB notes that: “Wow, what a jump. The German service sector, which was still in the doldrums at the start of the year, is recove ..read more

Prior 54.6 Composite PMI 52.6 Prior 53.5 Italy's services sector stays in expansion although there is just a slight easing in activity and new business on the month. Stronger demand conditions is helping in that regard with jobs growth also quickening in April. However, price pressures were stronger as well with input price inflation rising to its highest in a year. HCOB notes that: “The Italian service sector is thriving and flourishing. In April, the HCOB PMI continued to signal robust growth for the service sector for yet another month, with an index value of 54.3. The outlook remains str ..read more