Often discussed, but in fact consumption decline is a late cycle phenomenon ..read more

The latest report is worth a flick ..read more

Bain study shows that frequent acquirers outperform. “To put some data behind this assertion, from 2000 to 2010 companies that were frequent acquirers earned 57% higher shareholder returns vs. those that stayed out of the market. Now that advantage is about 130% (see Figure 1 ..read more

CPI stopped going down. Why? It is largely down to two components (Source). Auto insurance – though this is surprising as repair cost growth is moderating. Shelter – which is a difficult component full of assumptions. FT Alphaville has a deeper look – suggesting things aren’t so grim ..read more

Harvard tracks the short-term outlook for home improvement spend. “The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.“ Right now a bottom is seen in Q3 2024. The trajectory is a big upgrade on their previous outlook ..read more

Plenty of liquidity in MMF as % of disposable income. Source ..read more

Nice page from IFS on how income inequality, living standards and poverty are evolving. This one, in particular, is interesting – “Another way to see how income inequality has changed over time is the following chart – known as a ‘growth incidence curve’. This shows the average annual percentage growth in incomes at each percentile of the income distribution, for selected time periods ..read more

Source ..read more

“We believe even modest amounts of leverage is risky… …but large concentrated bets like being 100% in equities are just peachy keen“ Among the list of beliefs that the investment community holds simultaneously that are at odds ..read more

Traffic and sales to restaurants in the US is falling. Source ..read more