It is June 1, 2019 and we have 183 days ahead of us that will define what happens this season. Will it be busy? Slow? Who will be impacted? These are all questions that cannot be answered today but those answers will come as time progresses. I have posted my first video discussion of the season. In it, I go over some climatology as well as a look at an area of interest in the Bay of Campeche (Invest 91L). And…my new 2018 documentary is now available via YouTube through purchase with PayPal. I am awaiting Amazon Video to publish it on that platform – should be any day now! Visit this pa ..read more

It is May 1 and the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is still a month away. However, as we’ve seen in recent years, May is apparently not too early for something to try to develop in the fairly warm waters of the western Atlantic. The NHC issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook this morning concerning a loosely-organized area of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Not to worry, it has little chance of developing in to something of any significant concern but it will bring heavy rain and periodic gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas and eventually th ..read more

Invest 94L over the western Caribbean Sea will move west and in to Central America by tomorrow with minimal development expected. However, it is likely to bring heavy rain and the threat of flooding to the region. Now that hurricane Michael has left a legacy that will be remembered for generations to come, the tropics are hopefully going to give us a much needed period of rest. We do have an area to watch, however, in the climatologically favored western Caribbean Sea – invest 94L. The NHC indicates that it might become a tropical depression before eventually moving in to Central America to ..read more

The NHC confirms it: Michael is now a cat-4 hurricane, a rare event and even more rare to see one so close to land. I have the latest in my most recent discussion posted below ..read more

Michael has not strengthened yet but appears to be ready to do so and is likely to become a major hurricane before the day is out. This is the last full day that folks along the coast have to prepare. I have posted a new video discussion and in it I talk about not only the coastal impacts but also the far-reaching impacts from Michael for areas away from the coast. The quick movement and intense nature of the hurricane at landfall could mean hurricane conditions all the way in to portions of the Carolinas. So while the rain and flood threat will NOT be anywhere near what Florence delivered alm ..read more

I have made it to Gainesville, FL where I will spend the night tonight. Tomorrow, I will begin setting out equipment such as the live, unmanned cams ahead of what could be a very powerful hurricane. For now, I have prepared a new video discussion – I will have another in-depth analysis of what’s happening with hurricane Michael by 9am ET Tuesday morning ..read more

Here we go again. Another hurricane threat looming for the United States; this time, the Gulf Coast region. The NHC is issuing advisories on TD 14 situated just east of the Yucatan peninsula in the NW Caribbean Sea. This area is favored for development this time of year and we are actually in a period of even more favorable conditions for the time being. The forecast from the NHC calls for steady strengthening of the depression in to what will eventually be hurricane Michael. There is potential for it to become quite strong as well and people need to keep this in mind when preparing. Impacts w ..read more

The calendar says it’s early October which means fall weather, football and MLB playoff time. It does not, however, say that hurricane season is over; quite the contrary – we have quite a bit going on. In the Atlantic, hurricane Leslie continues to spin out in the middle of the open ocean adding to the ACE score for the season. It will not directly impact land although swells and high seas generated could impact places such as Bermuda and perhaps the Canadian Maritimes. Our next area to monitor closely will be the Gulf of Mexico as a large and broad area of low pressure, also called a gyre, sl ..read more

Here we are about to end the month of September and the tropics are still as busy as ever. While we do not have any hurricanes currently in the Atlantic, Kirk may make a run at becoming a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the east Pacific, hurricane Rosa is gaining strength quickly and will soon become a major hurricane and then is likely to turn north and eventually northeast towards the Baja and the Southwest U.S. – which could pose a major flood threat early next week. I cover all of these topics and more in my latest video discussion posted below ..read more

Invest area 98L has become more organized today with an increase in convection or thunderstorm activity. This will help to give it a boost and could possibly lead to the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm before it turns north and eventually away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. The NHC indicates an even split of 50/50 for development chances and mentions stronger upper level winds that are forecast to move in to the region by Wednesday. I think that between now and then, we could very well see a tropical storm form from this system which does have some remnant energy from hurr ..read more