Drought Busting Precipitation Recent US forecasts have elicited questions in places like YouTube and Twitter regarding whether or not enough precipitation will fall in the Midwestern US to “bust the drought.” The questions usually come with an opinion about whether or not enough rain will fall to impact existing drought… Read More ..read more

2023 US Corn Yields and Crop Season Weather Conditions In January 2024, the USDA released a final US corn yield estimate of 177.3 bushels per acre, which surprised a wide swath of the grain trading market. We review the 2023 crop season weather conditions and examine whether the surprise was… Read More ..read more

Droughts and their potential impact on the corn crop have featured prominently recently in agriculture news outlets. Growing drought conditions in the upper Midwest are starting to stress the crop early in the 2021 season because of low soil moisture due to a precipitation deficit. The June 8, 2021 US Drought Monitor update (released on June 10th) depicts broad areas of the midwestern US currently experiencing a range of drought conditions ..read more

USDA WASDE: How accurate are the estimates? As the end of the crop season approaches each year, the market eagerly awaits the August USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, released by Cornell University’s Mann Library. CropProphet is a web-based solution providing users with weather-based corn yield forecasts… Read More ..read more

Yield Impact of an Emerging Drought The US grain belt has experienced below-normal precipitation as Spring 2023 has evolved, as shown in the CropProphet-generated graphic below. While relatively dry conditions enable rapid crop planting, it also reduces soil moisture across the grain belt and eventually stresses the corn and soybean… Read More ..read more

US Oats Production by State Rankings – 2000 to 2022 Table of Contents 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015-2019 2020-2022 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2003 2008 2013 2018 2004 2009 2014 2019 Oats Production by State: Top 11 of 2022 The… Read More ..read more

Systematic Grain Trading: A Case Study Systematic Grain Trading: An Example Using CropProphet Modeler Efficient markets theory suggests that grain futures prices represent the instantaneous market perception of the balance between grain supply and demand. A grain trader with advanced knowledge of supply and/or demand changes could profitably trade with… Read More ..read more

The Browning Effect – An Introduction The browning effect is a phrase coined by commodity market analyst Darin Newsom to describe the progression of the average USDA crop condition report for corn and soybeans during the growing season. The browning effect describes the gradual decline of a particular aspect of… Read More ..read more

AgYield Partners With CropProphet CropProphet is pleased to announce an innovative partnership with AgYield.  AgYield assists producers in making well-informed decisions to better manage farm revenue, and market their crops at profitable levels while ensuring customers are not speculating on crop prices. The AgYield Revenue Manager product directly integrates CropProphet… Read More ..read more

We’ve teamed up with AgFlow to bring unique insight into how weather affects agriculture markets outside grain markets. AgFlow is a data company who deliver actionable agricultural market insights exclusively based on factual market data sourced from a transparent network. We performed this analysis jointly with AgFlow to gain insight… Read More ..read more