10 years have passed since Croatia’s accession to the EU and almost 20 years since Croatia was a candidate country. Despite EU membership, corruption remains a big issue in Croatia. Using new Ipsos data for UK in a Changing Europe, Stephanie Luke highlights that this has translated into a loss of faith in politics. The countries covered in Ipsos’ polling for UK in a Changing Europe vary in size, party system and political history. One thing, though, pretty much unites them: their public’s dissatisfaction with democracy. Of the seven countries analysed, it is only in Sweden where a majority (58 ..read more

Anwen Elias looks at the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, exploring what comes next and the wider lessons for debate about constitutional change. On 18 January 2024, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales published its final report on different options for the governance of Wales. Whether the report will lead to changes in the Welsh devolution settlement depends on securing agreement from the UK government and other devolved administrations. But there are also broader lessons to be learnt from the Commission’s work: it provides a model for ..read more

Using new data by Ipsos for UK in a Changing Europe, Sophie Stowers compares feelings of political apathy and discontent in the United Kingdom to other countries in Europe, finding that though the UK’s cynicism is not unique, it is particularly widespread. For those of us who study elections and voting behaviour, 2024 is a stellar year. A slate of elections is set to take place not just in the UK but across the world, with India, the US, Austria, Belgium, and Croatia, among others, all going to the polls, and with an EU Parliamentary election to top it off. Voters, though, are not quite so ent ..read more

Jocelyn Mawdlsey unpacks the EU’s rearmament dilemma, exploring whether the European Commission’s recently launched Defence Industrial Strategy is the answer. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it has become apparent that the West is struggling to deliver the necessary arms to support Ukraine in sufficient quantities or at speed, let alone rearm itself. In November 2023, EU defence ministers accepted that they would miss their target of delivering a million rounds of ammunition in 12 months to Ukraine, blaming defence firms. This has drawn attention to a problem for the EU: lack of ..read more

Using new data by Ipsos for UK in a Changing Europe on political representation, Stephanie Luke highlights that dissatisfaction with both major parties could increase the number of people who don’t vote or vote for anti-establishment parties such as Reform UK.  All the polls for the upcoming UK general election point to a victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, with British voters said to have fallen out of love with the Conservatives. Yet, it does not look like Labour’s lead is the product of love for the party’s leader or its policy, but rather the unpopularity of the Conservatives and ..read more

Mariana Mendes analyses the recent Portuguese election, arguing that it represented a significant moment of change for Portugal, with the rise of the far right Chega party and a big drop in support for the two parties that have traditionally dominated Portuguese politics.  March 10 was no ordinary Portuguese election. Once deemed exceptional among European countries, due to the stability of its party system and absence of strong challenger parties, Portugal no longer bucks the trend. Not only has it joined the large club of European democracies with strong far right representation, but al ..read more

Heather Rolfe unpacks British Future’s latest Immigration Attitudes Tracker. She highlights that when it comes to migration for work the public favour addressing shortages at all skill levels, rather than just focusing on attracting people for highly skilled roles. Recent years have seen unusually high levels of net migration, leading the government to seek ways of reducing entry to UK. Aside from asylum, migration for work has been top of the government’s list for making reductions. And in an election year, the government will be anticipating that these changes will be supported by the public ..read more

Stephanie Luke reflects on the Scottish Conservative Party Conference, highlighting that by criticising the SNP’s performance in government, the party draws more attention to the Westminster government’s record on the NHS and the economy. With Scottish voters rating the UK government poorly in these areas, such a strategy will likely not help the Scottish Conservatives win more seats. Earlier this month, the Scottish Conservatives kicked off their party conference in Aberdeen against a backdrop of polling showing support for the party had dropped to just  15%. This is a level of support n ..read more

David Phinnemore unpacks the first test for one of the processes in the Windsor Framework designed to give the Northern Ireland Assembly a say over the application of EU rules in Northern Ireland. He highlights that the UK government now faces a decision and explores what might come next. Last week the recently restored Northern Ireland (NI) Assembly held its first debate on whether the UK government should agree to the adoption of a new EU act in Northern Ireland. This was a significant first test for one of the processes that gives Stormont a say on the Windsor Framework – one which leaves t ..read more

Iain Begg analyses Rachel Reeves’ Mais lecture. He looks at her proposals on fiscal rules, highlighting that while there are sensible aspects to her approach there are bigger questions around whether the current ‘debt rule’ – which Reeves committed to keep – makes sense. The Mais lecture has become a rite of passage for Chancellors of the Exchequer and would-be Chancellors, enabling them to set out their visions for running the economy. This week, Labour Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the lecture, in which she went further than previously in explaining how the economy would be run b ..read more