Forecasts for late Sunday and early next week are, how shall I put it, interesting.  Both the GFS (below) and the Euro are bringing a deep upper-level trough and strong cold front into northern Utah on Sunday afternoon.   Then, in the wake of that system, there's a prolonged period of moist, northwesterly flow with a couple of weak disturbances thrown in to help juice things up.  Below is the forecast for 1500 UTC (9 AM MDT) Monday showing heavy orographic snow showers over the Wasatch.   The forecast 700-mb temperatures at that time are also about -7°C, which ..read more

Impressive rainfall numbers are coming in from this latest storm period.  Total accumulated precipitation since very early Friday morning (~5 AM MDT 26 April) is now over 1.1 inches at the University of Utah. A look at accumulations for the Salt Lake Valley region shows the largest accumulations in the Tooele Valley and Magna areas and secondarily along the east bench of the Salt Lake Valley.  Water equivalent totals in the central Wasatch are actually lower than at the high precipitation sites along the east bench.  If you are wondering, my guestimate for Alta-Collins based ..read more

Faculty from the University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences won two major University-wide awards this year with Dr. Kevin Perry Receiving the Presidential Societal Impact Scholar Award and myself a Distinguished Teaching Award. Kevin's award stems from his work illustrating the climate and health effects of dust from the exposed lake bed of the Great Salt Lake.  This is a project born from intellectual curiosity and personal drive and in it's early stages was largely unfunded.  Kevin rose a fat bike across the exposed lake bed, collecting samples and illustrating the to ..read more

Last Week, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah released a detailed fact sheet highlighting the economic contributions of Utah's ski industry.  If it seems like the Utah ski industry has changed dramatically in recent years, this study largely confirms it.  A few interesting tidbits.   Skier days have really taken off since 2020/21 with each year since setting a new record, reaching 7.1 million in 2022/23.  And that 7.1 million was reached with Little Cottonwood being closed by avalanche hazard for the latter part of the season.  If it see ..read more

The statewide snowpack water equivalent, based on an average of all stations in Utah, peaked on April 1-2 at 18.8 inches and after fluctuating just below that value for about 10 days, has been steadily declining and now sits at 15 inches.  Source: NRCS The peak of 18.8 inches was 117.5% of the median peak of 16 inches, so it's been a decent snow year statewide. The situation though varies depending on region and elevation.  We'll focus here on the Wasatch Range.  The lowest elevation SNOTEL site in the Wasatch is Ben Lomond Trail in the North Ogden Valley, which is at 5 ..read more

In the previous post, Climate Change Case Study: Austria, we examined recent trends in snow measures and potential impacts of future warming on skiing in the eastern Alps.  Declines in snow and snowcover are evident in the recent past and expected to continue in the next few decades in low- and mid-elevation areas.  High-elevation resorts in Tyrol, where resorts more commonly extend above 2000 meters, are the most "climate resilient" but will still feel the effects of climate change.  Ski area viability declines with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions and future warming.  One ..read more

It was a great ski season here in northern Utah, but the situation at low elevations in the Alps this year was dismal.  The photo below was taken on March 3rd at Brixen im Thale, part of the SkiWelt Wilderkaiser – Brixental megaresort in the eastern Tyrol of Austria.  Despite it being early March, the natural snowpack was non-existent and artificial snow was scant.   This is a low elevation area.  The photo is taken at 800 meters and much of the skiing in this region is is below 2000 meters.  At these elevations, show is especially vulnerable to temperature, and ..read more

I'm calling it. Spring is here.  Powder skiing chances now will be increasing intermittent.  The final powder weekend was a good one.  It was ideal for April powder skiing with a goldilocks dump that covered much of the buried crusts, a remarkably cold airmass, and enough cloud cover to limit the caustic effects of the now high-angle sun.   Forecasts for this week are not hopeful if you are hoping powder.  Below is the 7-day GFS.  Mt. Baldy (11,000 ft) tempeatures rising the next few days into the 30s.  Near 50 at Alta Collins.  Maybe a shower or ..read more

Alta went over the coveted 600 inch mark today thanks to ongoing showshowers that for a time in the morning featured a bonafide mid-lake band.  It has been a long time since I can remember a solitary, well-developed mid-lake bands taking aim at the Cottonwoods.  The image below is for 1329 UTC (7:29 AM MDT).  Rumors are it was a hell of a day of skiing.  Good for you if you were up and enjoying the early April freshies.   It's still stacking up as I write this at a bit after 5 PM.  Total snow depth is now up to 181", or a bit over 4.5 meters for the rest of ..read more

It's a great pattern for late March with snowfall continuing today.  Overnight, Alta-Collins picked up 6 inches (as of 7 am) and the radar looks pretty filled in as I write this at 7:20 AM. Snow today from 7 AM to 5 PM should add another 3-6" to the stake.  The HRRR says morning will be more active than afternoon, whereas the GFS keeps it going for most of the day.  Let's hope the latter verifies as that might push us above my forecast range.   Periods of snow will continue through Sunday night, with perhaps some snow showers on Monday.  I'm not sure if it will s ..read more