This new study follows up on a recently-published study led by Michel Fischer that looked at the relationship between the tilt of tropical cyclone (TC) vortices and intensification. Both studies used a database of airborne tail Doppler radar (TDR) data collected by NOAA’s P-3 aircraft, spanning multiple decades, to examine the wind and rainfall structures of TCs and how they relate to intensity change. The new study presents general differences between TCs that are maintaining about the same intensity and those that are intensifying to learn how and why ..read more

A new forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), was introduced during the 2023 hurricane season. We found that the cloud microphysics (how ice and water behave in clouds) had large impacts on track forecasts and some impacts on structure and intensity forecasts. The boundary layer physics had a notable impact on the forecasts of storm structure and rapid intensification. These results have helped us optimize HAFS for forecast improvement. Figure 1: Average forecast intensity error (kt) for the four sets of runs, for only rapidly intensifying cases (when either the mode ..read more

This study uses a simple chaotic system to show that both model error and initial condition errors have profound impacts on predictability.  These findings may have very important ramifications for how to design computer forecast models (and models in other fields where computer simulations are used) to improve their predictability.  It is also shown for the first that small changes to the equations have a similar impact on the predictability limit as changes to the initial conditions, which can influence how sets of computer forecast models are designed and run. This figur ..read more

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov ..read more

On September 30, 2021, a saildrone uncrewed surface vehicle made history by intercepting the eyewall of Hurricane Sam in the northwestern tropical Atlantic, recording a viral video of what it’s like to be tossed around by 100 mile-per-hour winds and 30-foot high waves.   The Guinness Book of World Records later certified that a 126.4 mile-per-hour wind gust recorded by the bright orange 23-foot saildrone in the core of the Category 4 storm was a new world record for an uncrewed surface vehicle. <continued> ..read more

This research develops and tests a new approach of mass-flux parameterizations in high-wind-speed conditions like hurricanes. The better scheme has been implemented into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System-B model to advance its skill in predicting TC structure and impacts such as storm surge and wind damage. The lowest 1-2 km of atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) has wind that is random and continuously changing over regions of 100 m or less (about the size of a football field), what we call turbulence. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast trop ..read more

The story of the beginnings of aircraft reconnaissance of hurricanes has long been mythologized. The truth is more complex and interesting. The story of the first aircraft penetration of the eye of a hurricane by Lt. Colonel Joe Duckworth of the US Army Air Forces (USAAF) on 27 July, 1943, is told, but some myths have arisen concerning this event. There were previous attempts at hurricanereconnaissance, and a rival method (marine reconnaissance) for monitoring such storms was attempted but eventually prov ..read more

This work explores the current state of the science of forecasts that provide a range of possibilities (i.e., probabilistic forecasts) of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and track. Probabilistic TC forecast products can be an important resource for helping the public manage their level of risk from TC impacts. We examine experimental probabilistic genesis and track forecast products being developed and produced at various forecasts centers around the globe, perspectives of understanding and communicating probabilistic forecasts of TC genesis and track, and availability of resources for producing ..read more

Four Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies employees were recognized on 5 December in a hybrid event held in Silver Spring for their leadership and for personal and professional excellence. Congratulations to Jason, Bill, Andy, and Sarah for their exceptional work to improve hurricane forecasts! For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov ..read more

his season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019).  NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the ..read more