The GOP path to taking control of the U.S. Senate got even clearer with Larry Hogan entering the Maryland U.S. Senate race this winter More than two months after former two-term Maryland Governor Larry Hogan filed his paperwork as a candidate for the U.S. Senate, a new survey by the Baltimore Sun finds he still holds a double-digit lead against each of his likely Democratic opponents (three-term U.S. Representative David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks). Hogan’s lingering popularity among the electorate should not be surprising on its face – he won reelection by 1 ..read more

Reliably Republican strongholds are much more widespread than those on the Democratic side Last week Smart Politics highlighted states with the largest uninterrupted Democratic winning streaks in statewide elections. Today, the lens turns on the nation’s other major political party – where the GOP has made far greater and deeper inroads in states across the country by this measure. When it comes to electoral winning streaks, the list starts and ends with a state that has thus far been the fool’s gold of the Democratic Party for the better part of a decade – Texas. Texas Republican nominees ha ..read more

Which streaks are most likely to come to a halt in November? The conventional wisdom heading into the 2024 election is that the outcome of the presidential race will hinge on approximately a half-dozen battleground states. Almost all of the other states, it is posited, will reliably vote for the Democratic or Republican nominee. This is not an unreasonable supposition as red states are generally getting redder and blue states are getting bluer. Over the next two reports, Smart Politics will highlight those states with the largest (and longest) partisan winning streaks across all offices with ..read more

At least one in six Republican primary voters have backed Haley in three states since her withdrawal from the race A refrain heard across many media outlets during the contested Republican presidential primary contests through Super Tuesday was pointing out the percentage of GOP voters who were not backing Donald Trump even as he cruised to victories in almost every contest. Whether his opponents were winning 20, 30, or 40 percent, the question often posed was how many of these Republican primary voters (particularly in closed primaries) would still not vote for Trump in November’s general el ..read more

Michigan Republicans hope to leverage the state’s open seat to end a nine-cycle losing streak in the chamber With one month until the filing deadline for primary ballot access in Michigan’s 2024 U.S. Senate race (April 23rd), the state is almost certain to shatter its record for the most candidates vying for the Republican Party nomination. While some of the dozen announced candidates may yet withdraw from the race before the early August primary, a new party record will be set if even half remain in the race. Among the candidates running to fill the seat of retiring Democrat Debbie Stabenow ..read more

Will the 2024 Republican nominee receive less than 40 percent of the vote for the fourth time in party history? As Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown awaits his opponent to emerge from next Tuesday’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, he is positioned as a slight favorite at best to retain his seat as the seven-plus month march to the general election begins in the reddish Buckeye State. Brown is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle – the ninth time a Democrat has run without an opposing candidate for the office in party history joining Senator Robert Bulkley ..read more

Cruz received more support than any other major party candidate in a contested Texas U.S. Senate primary As Democrats brace to hold multiple vulnerable seats in an attempt to maintain their fragile majority in the U.S. Senate, they eye Ted Cruz’s seat in the state of Texas as one of the few conceivable 2024 pick-up opportunities for the party. For nearly a decade, Texas has made the list of possible Democratic wins in various statewide elections, but the party always comes up short – losing 166 partisan statewide contests in a row dating back to 1996. While Senator Cruz only narrowly defeated ..read more

Minnesota is hosting presidential primaries for both major parties in back-to-back cycles for just the second time in state history On Super Tuesday, Minnesota will join 15 other states and one territory holding presidential primaries or caucuses. After six consecutive cycles without holding a presidential primary from 1996 through 2016, the Gopher State has now done so in two consecutive cycles for both major parties for just the second time in state history. Minnesota’s hot and cold relationship with the presidential primary has been a particularly unusual one – coming and going every three ..read more

Nearly twice as many Republican presidential candidates have lost their home state than have been victorious among those who ultimately did not win their party’s nomination Although Nikki Haley met the top end of the support she was receiving in matchup polls against Donald Trump in her home state South Carolina primary, her 20.3-point loss was understandably characterized by most media outlets as a blowout. Over the last half-century, the vast majority of presidential candidates had already suspended their campaigns by the time Primary Day in their state came up on the election calendar. And ..read more

How Long Will Nikki Haley Remain in the 2024 GOP race? Although candidates would rarely admit otherwise, Nikki Haley is giving all appearances that she will remain in the race for the 2024 Republican nomination even if she loses her home state of South Carolina this Saturday. Should that come to pass, the expectation is Haley would continue on through next week’s contests in Michigan, Idaho, and Missouri until at least Super Tuesday (March 5th). But even if Haley lasts that long, it is possible she could still notch the record for the earliest exit of the ‘last remaining challenger’ for a maj ..read more