Long Term Update: 2024 Outlook with entropic methods
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
3M ago
Every year i post an outlook using entropic methods explained in the technical section of this blog. Here you can find the 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecast update, where you can find more information about this approach. Updated values for bitcoin (in brackets values of 2023) using daily data since August 2010 (from now on I will use only BITSTAMP data, as today there are not many differences between major Bitcoin exchanges.).    BTC/USD Growth Factor G 1.00099 (1.00090 ) Shannon Probability P (see this as entropy) 0.52237 (0.5214 ) Root ..read more
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Long Term Update: Critical Point
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
It is always better to look, as I always say, at larger time frames to understand how to build a winning operating strategy. I invite you first to look at this monthly chart of the BTCUSD, before commenting it. BTCUSD Monthly Chart with Kama Roof/Floor price zones We are clearly compressed in a price range well defined by the monthly average that defines the equilibrium point of this halving cycle (2020-2024) and an intermediate level with reduced volatility (around $28,000). A Failure to move and to stay above the monthly Kama average would be bearish in my opinion and it would clearly be fol ..read more
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Portfolio Update: Sold 1 unit at 28997$ now flat
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
LONG TERM No position open SHORT TERM No position open Trailing Profit at 29,000$ has been caught, now flat. About 20,000$ profit for each btc traded ..read more
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Short Term Update: Still bearish
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
We are flat, usually it happens so the market finds a strong point (where the indicator of efficiency of kama average reaches values around 0.80-0.85) and stops, at that point it can go in lateral or bounce noticeably. In most cases we enter in a lateral phase which is now defined by the usual bands that I use (see chart below). BTCUSD – Daily Chart What i’d like to see is: Some consolidation above daily kama average, >38,000$ A first breakout of the first resistance band at 41,000$ A test of the 2nd band at 44,000$ Some healthy retracement back to 41,000$ or so Final break-out above 44,00 ..read more
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Long Term Update: The Big Picture
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
BTCUSD Monthly Chart with KAMA+Deviation Bands, RSIC oscillator confirming new buy signal In the chart above, there is a new buy signal from a modified RSI oscillator after an apparent four-year interval, with a smoother output compared to the original. My yearly prediction, which I typically release in January, appears to be consistent with the Kama average levels. The estimated target range for this upward movement is at least around $36,000, with a maximum potential upside of $58,000. As a result, I believe that we will not see a new all time high during this year. It can be noted that the ..read more
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Portfolio Update: Long 1 unit at 22451$
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
LONG TERM 1 unit bought at 22451$ SHORT TERM No position open As someone who is interested in long-term investments, I recently made the decision to buy bitcoin at a price of 22451$. I will explain the reasons that led me to make this decision. The first reason is based on technical analysis. An oscillator indicator, which measures momentum, has recently given a bullish signal on the monthly chart of bitcoin. This is a strong signal indicating that the price of bitcoin is likely to continue rising in the coming months like it did in 2015 and 2019, this oscillator is a modified version of the c ..read more
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Long Term Update: 2023 Outlook with entropic methods
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
1y ago
I will be busy in the coming days, so the yearly update for 2023 is being released early. Every year i post an outlook using entropic methods explained in the technical section of this blog. Here you can find the 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 forecast update, where you can find more information about this approach. Updated values for bitcoin (in brackets values of 2022) using daily data since August 2010 (from now on I will use only BITSTAMP data, as today there are not many differences between major Bitcoin exchanges.).    BTC/USD Growth Factor G 1.000 ..read more
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Long Term Update: Will it work?
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
2y ago
Since I published the annual forecast last January ’22, BTCUSD has already tested the lower limit of the forecast twice, at around $30,000. I don’t know whether to interpret this behaviour as a sign of weakness or not. What is certain is that if the TOP of this halving cycle has been made it is very likely to test at least the 1st lower band of my monthly Kama average (22,700$). Let’s see in detail the levels that I consider interesting to observe. BTCUSD Monthly chart since 2017 Top I would interpret as a signal of possible weakness a breach of the $29,800 level, certainly we need to consider ..read more
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Long Term Update: 2022 Outlook with entropic methods
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
2y ago
Every year i post an outlook using entropic methods explained in the technical section of this blog. Here you can find the 2015, 2016, 2017,  2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 forecast update, where you can find more information about this approach. Updated values for bitcoin (in brackets values of last year) using daily data since August 2010 (average data of 4 main exchanges when possible).    BTC/USD Growth Factor G 1.00130 (1.00104) Shannon Probability P (see this as entropy) 0.5254 (0.5232) Root mean square RMS (see this as volatility) 0.049 (0.055) Bitco ..read more
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Long Term Update: Will it work?
Bitcoin Trading Signals
by CryptoAdvisor
2y ago
In the last update I had pointed out that it was crucial to exceed the monthly kama average (at that time around 40k usd), so bitcoin did and after a very strong bottom in July it resumed the uptrend on the monthly chart. Why a strong bottom? Because it was far above the support price zone defined by the lower bands. At this point it is obvious that it will do a new top under the push of the ten-year old uptrend, after all bitcoin never entered a prolonged bear market since its inception. For quite some time now, thanks to the price bands, I have identified the price zone where the next top wi ..read more
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