Pandemic Woes Lead To Fiscal Spending Hopes
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
This week’s U.S. economic data reminds us that the pandemic still has a tight grip on our economy. Initial jobless claims increased to just under one million last week for the largest weekly increase since March as tighter business restrictions and stay at home orders finally found their way into the labor market data. Just as during last spring, leisure and hospitality and other service businesses appear to be bearing the brunt of the layoffs. We expect initial claims to stay at the highest levels since August at around 945k when next week’s data is released on Thursday. December nonfarm ..read more
Visit website
Coronavirus Sends Labor Market Recovery Into Reverse
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
The December Employment Report was as bad as feared, and worse than most economist forecasts, showing a net loss of 140k non-farm jobs in December. This was a sharp break from November’s performance when the U.S. economy created a solid and upwardly revised 336k jobs. The unemployment rate held at an elevated 6.7% in December, but another 115k people left the labor force to keep it at that elevated level – so not really great news all-in-all. The coronavirus resurgence, new business restrictions, and new stay-at-home orders were the primary drivers of the sudden reversal in the labor market r ..read more
Visit website
U.S. Labor Market Recovery Ends Year With A Whimper
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
We have seen seven consecutive months of strong U.S. job re-creation, a surging housing market, and record high stock prices. But as we were just starting to get comfortable with weekly improvements in initial and continuing jobless claims, the evidence is mounting that the U.S. labor market recovery is starting to reverse. Job losses are mounting yet again as COVID cases surge and business shutdowns and stay at home orders wash over major states like California and New York. We are forecasting net U.S. job losses when the December payroll report is released on January 8th with an unemploymen ..read more
Visit website
California Economic Outlook Report – December 2020
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY California’s labor market recovery is lagging the nation as job losses in pandemic impacted industries remain high and new business restrictions and stay at home orders begin to bite. After six consecutive months of job increases through October, employment in California is still 8.4% or 1.47 million jobs below the February peak. California employment is forecast to decrease 7.1% in 2020 and rebound 1.5% in 2021. California’s economic downturn would have been much worse without the unprecedented fiscal support from federal and state governments and aggressive monetary action ..read more
Visit website
Powerful Cross Currents Creating Some Chop
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
Economic forecasting, never an activity for the faint of heart, is particularly tricky these days given the collision of renewed business lockdowns against unprecedented, but waning, fiscal and monetary stimulus designed to keep asset prices supported and consumers and businesses solvent long enough to outlast this coronavirus pandemic. With Congress still bickering over the elements and size of another coronavirus relief bill and millions of Americans at imminent risk of losing pandemic unemployment benefits, and facing an end to eviction moratoriums and mortgage forbearance assistance, the ..read more
Visit website
V-Shaped Employment Recovery Comes to an End
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
The November employment report wasn’t great, revealing a sharp deceleration in job creation from October’s pace, but it could have been much worse, given the rising coronavirus case counts and renewed business shutdowns rolling once again across many regions, and the delay in additional relief from the Federal government. Before we go into the details of the release, it is important to note that the survey week for this payroll report came somewhat before most states and regions made severe lockdown decisions, so December’s job numbers are bound to be much worse and could actually turn out to ..read more
Visit website
A Happy Holiday For Retailers?
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
A resurgence in coronavirus cases across nearly all states and the weaker-than-expected October retail sales report released earlier this week puts the strength of the upcoming holiday shopping season in doubt. We thought as folks gear up for their first, and hopefully last, coronavirus Thanksgiving, now would be a good time to share our holiday retail sales outlook for 2020. The number of new COVID-19 cases began to rise sharply in mid-October and has become truly exponential over the past week. A new record-high number of cases on a 7-day moving average basis has been reached 26 consecutive ..read more
Visit website
Treasury Market Volatility Returns
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
The 10-year Treasury note yield – which is a benchmark for long-term interest rates, including the popular 30-year fixed rate mortgage – was extremely volatile leading up to and following the elections on November 3rd. Now that most of the votes have been tallied, we thought now was an good time to look at what drove the intense volatility of longer-term Treasury rates and what it might tell us, or not tell us, about future interest rates moves. Many factors can influence the level of nominal Treasury yields and their direction of change in the future, including the macroeconomic and inflatio ..read more
Visit website
Another Better Than Expected Jobs Report For October
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
The U.S. labor market recovery continued in October at a fairly rapid clip, though the pace of net job creation slowed for the fourth consecutive month to a gain of 638k jobs down from a 672k gain in September. The job recovery last month was stronger in the private sector, which increased payrolls by 906k jobs – a 226k job overshoot of consensus forecasts. The headline nonfarm payroll increase would have been stronger, but was held back by a large drop in government jobs, which sank by 268k last month as state education jobs declined by 61k, local governments shed 98k jobs, and 148k Census w ..read more
Visit website
Consumers Keep Spending Going Into The Holidays
Bank of the West | Change Matters
by Scott Anderson
3y ago
The September consumer spending and income report exceeded economists’ forecasts again. In real terms, consumer spending increased at a robust 15.9% annualized pace in September, nearly ensuring consumers will continue to increase their spending at a healthy pace over the holidays too. Durable goods spending is up 14.3% from a year ago even as personal services spending has declined 6.5% from a year ago. John Maynard Keynes is alive and well in 2020. Economic policy makers have gone back to their 1930’s playbook to get the U.S. economy out of this pandemic recession, the deepest U.S. and glob ..read more
Visit website

Follow Bank of the West | Change Matters on FeedSpot

Continue with Google
Continue with Apple
OR