In 2019, Brandon Davenport and Rich Ganske wrote “‘Recalculating Route’: A Realistic Risk Assessment for GPS” for War on the Rocks, in which they argued that threats to GPS are regularly over-exaggerated and that the GPS remains highly resilient. In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s recent spate of jamming military and civilian aircraft in Europe, we asked them to look back on the article. Read more below. Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Lt. Col. Erin Gulden In your article “‘Recalculating Route’: A Realistic Risk Assessment for GPS” written in 201 ..read more

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and Se ..read more

After spending years working and living in Africa, I have learned you cannot take anything for granted. Even though foreign navies and coast guards exist on paper, that does not mean they have boats that float and work. Even if they do have boats that float and work, that does not mean they have fuel or spare parts. Even if the boats are able to regularly operate, that does not mean they put a dent in maritime crime because maritime law enforcement is only one component of a government effectively policing its waters. In December 2022, U.S. Coast Guard Cmdr. The post A More Comprehensive Plan ..read more

A lot happens every day. Alliances shift, leaders change, and conflicts erupt. With In Brief, we’ll help you make sense of it all. Each week, experts will dig deep on a single issue happening in the world to help you better understand it. *** This month, the Department of Defense and the U.S. Space Force released strategies aimed at integrating commercial space capabilities into military space architecture. Commercial space capabilities have regularly demonstrated military utility in Ukraine’s effort to hold back Russia’s invasion for the past two years. Militaries around the world are moving ..read more

While developing the nuclear bomb, Robert Oppenheimer and his colleagues expressed concerns about the possibility of igniting the Earth’s atmosphere. Today, with the emergence of autonomous weapons, we are faced with a similar risk of causing catastrophic damage by unleashing weapons that can kill without feeling fear. The consequences of unleashing such fearless weapons on the battlefield could be far more devastating than we can imagine. Indeed, humanity may come to miss the restraining and mitigating effects of fear, fatigue, and stress on the horrors of combat. The proliferation of autonom ..read more

As we enter spring 2024, Ukraine’s military position looks tenuous. Its counter-offensive in 2023 did not achieve the ambitious results that Ukraine’s allies had hoped for, and the Ukrainians are now under pressure from Russian forces that have great superiority in both troops and materiel. In a recent article, Alexander Burns argued that Ukraine’s predicament is in many ways similar to that of the German state of Prussia during the Seven Years’ War of 1756–63. In that conflict, Prussia not only survived a long struggle against much larger opponents but even ended up militarily on the front fo ..read more

The United States is engaged in its first major naval combat since World War II, according to the commander overseeing U.S. naval forces in the Middle East. But instead of pitting the world’s major powers against each other, this battle is between a superpower and an isolated armed group controlling one of the poorest, most resource-deprived areas on Earth. Houthi attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea are undermining freedom of navigation as an international norm, jeopardizing a principle that has underpinned the international system and global economy for decades. The fact that the Hout ..read more

Trainees of the Seychelles Coast Guard didn’t expect to be baptized by fire when they left Victoria harbor that morning. Yet there they stood (or ducked for cover) on the deck as 7.62×39-mm cartridges from the pirates’ AK-47s whizzed over their heads. Seychellois commandoes reacted with the sang-froid that comes from experience. They quickly turned the guns of their Trinkat-class patrol vessel on the pirates in the fishing trawler they had forcibly seized only hours before. The pirates didn’t have a chance; they dropped their weapons and surrendered. The pirates of Somalia have returned, and s ..read more

If you think America’s controls on China’s access to advanced chips are important, you might have been troubled by the claim from the chief of one of China’s most important semiconductor equipment manufacturers that 80 percent of the chipmaking equipment China imports could be replaced by domestic tools by the end of 2024. The U.S. export control regime on China is designed to restrain the growth of China’s advanced semiconductor manufacturing by limiting Beijing’s access to exquisite machine tools produced by the United States and its allies. But China is moving to replace Western equipment w ..read more

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below. *** Iran Iran’s recent extensive missile and drone attack on Israel marks a significant escalation in the longstanding confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The attack, according to Tehran, was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus earlier in April, which led to the death of a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander. Iranian officials have declared their act of “revenge ..read more