Myth of the Elite 7 – Mega cap stocks were not the only path to success Challenging the Status Quo – Over-reliance on traditional investment mantras, in particular conventional wisdom surrounding the Federal Reserve has been an investment loser Reality Check – Lightning rarely strikes in the same place twice. Look outside the popular favorites for new themes as we head into 2024 The Price Tag for Downside Protection – Protecting the downside often means lagging the upside By David Nelson, CFA CMT As 2023 comes to a close, it is time for a raw, no-holds-barred reflection on the ..read more

Big Tech’s Market Influence Walmart’s Earnings Report as an economic indicator Small Cap Stocks – Is this the beginning of a sustained rally? Fed – Can they pull off a soft landing When the Fed will cut By David Nelson, CFA CMT   Bad news is good news. Good news is bad news. That’s been the guiding light for investors the last 22 months. It wasn’t the only focus, but it was certainly the force behind most decision making. God forbid the economy, or the consumer were strong. That would mean only one thing. The Fed would have to slam on the brakes and not let up. Outside of energy that mi ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA Bullet Points First step in solving a problem is admitting you have one The United States of America is addicted to debt Will strong earnings put our problems behind us  Regime Change – Yields at the long end are going higher Problems show up in debt markets first Fixed income investors will demand higher yields House Speaker Washington – It’s too late for normal. We need radical change Today, I want to cover what I think is a rising threat to the health of the U.S. financial system. Let’s start off with the events of last Friday and what looked like a relief rally ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA We are coming into the last week of September and investors are facing some tough choices on how to position for the final quarter of 2023. On the heels of 3 weekly declines traders are bracing for a breakout in the VIX, (CBOE Volatility Index) forcing even lower prices or a reversion to the mean, relieving oversold conditions letting stocks take back some of the losses. Bloomberg Data I can’t pretend to know what’s coming this week, but I can make decisions on how to position my team for the final quarter of the year. New information comes in and you’re forced to adapt ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA   Markets always climb a wall of worry, and this market is no different. Investors are still trying to swallow 11 rate hikes from a born-again Federal Reserve, as well as increasingly pessimistic news out of the second largest economy on the planet, China. A rising dollar hits U.S. multinationals, the yield curve screams recession and as the saying goes, the Fed keeps hiking until something breaks. Bloomberg Data The above alone is enough to keep any investor up at night. These are near-term threats that markets will sort out, but it’s the long-term challenges that b ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road.   Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns. With map in hand confident we had sidestepped a recession, a recession mind you that has followed every yield curve inversion in modern times it suddenly hits you. We’ve been reading the maps all wrong.   The storm isn’t behind us, it’s d ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA   Outside of death and taxes, there are few absolutes in life. For investors the world can be just as narrow. Fear and greed are the only things we can count on. Yes we have thousands of data points to judge companies and the health of the economy. At any given moment, some subset of that data drives security prices. However, it’s fear and greed that are the driving force in our decision tree.   Oh, I forgot… the story. There’s always a story. Some investors focus on the data, while others focus on the narrative. Smart investors learn how to put it all together t ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA Everyone approaches life and their job differently. I spend some part of my weekend in reflection, looking back over the previous week, asking myself some tough questions. What did I do right? And more importantly, what did I get wrong? The scale is rarely balanced, but if I’m honest with myself, I can usually identify any problems in the process or execution. The next part is the most important: Do something about it! All too often, we waltz into our workweek with little in the way of a plan. I don’t care if you work on Wall Street or Main Street. We live in a competitive ..read more

By David Nelson, CFA CMT   This is what most investors see when they look at a chart of U.S. stocks. Bloomberg Data This is what I see. Bloomberg Data Stocks are just 5% from an all-time high and a ball spiking end zone dance. The sentiment has turned bullish but making it across that goal line won’t be a walk in the park. Just like in football, the last few yards in the Red Zone can be the toughest. On Thursday last week, we saw how fragile that sentiment is. Every bull market has its Achilles heel and this one is no different. Welcome to the Money Runner. I’m David Nelson. Every tim ..read more

David Nelson launches The Money Runner. In the end money touches everything. The show will take on topics that resonate from Wall Street to Main Street and of course Washington ..read more