Oil prices have held steady week on week despite a significant inventory build in U.S. crude two weeks ago, which was countered by a draw in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ending April 19th. Next to this, traders have become less concerned about a potential supply disruption in the Middle East.  The crude inventory build at the middle of the month triggered fears that oil demand could be weakening; however, Standard Chartered estimates that global inventories will increase by only 74,000 barrels per day in the month ..read more

While U.S. and European automakers struggle with weaker demand for electric vehicles, China is churning out a growing number of small and cheap EVs that are taking over the domestic car market and other markets in Asia. Affordability has been a key driver of consumer choices when buying a car. The average consumer in the U.S. and Europe has yet to afford an EV manufactured by a Western carmaker. That's not the case in China, where generous government subsidies have helped EV manufacturers make many models priced on par or even lower than gasoline ..read more

Investments in the energy transition are falling way short of what is needed for its success. The fresh warning comes from BlackRock, which said annual investments in the shift away from hydrocarbons need to almost double from their current record levels. But it’s getting less likely this would ever happen. In a new edition of its Investment Institute Transition Scenario, the bank said that moving the transition forward would require more money from both public and private sources and that, for its part, would require “alignment between ..read more

Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Hungary, Serbia, and France on a high-profile tour in early May, marking his first trip to Europe since the pandemic. Here's what to watch. Finding Perspective: The trip will be rich in symbolism and comes at a crucial time with Russia advancing on the battlefield in Ukraine, escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Brussels, and potential fallout from November's U.S. election. Against this backdrop, Xi will be looking to repair some of the damage done to the relationship with Europe since his last trip ..read more

Via Metal Miner New China tariffs may soon change the country’s steel market tactics. China continues to sit on a stockpile of steel, and it has no idea what to do with most of it. The exception, however, seems to be dumping it into foreign markets for cheap under the guise of “exportation.” China remains unable to use the bulk of this steel for its own infrastructure needs due to a decline in consumption and a stagnating economy. Therefore, export seems to be the best way out. This is especially beneficial as steel production ..read more

With election-year prices at the pump a key campaign factor for U.S. presidential hopefuls, new projections indicate that the typical spring price spikes, which culminate in the Memorial Day driving weekend, will fall back earlier than previously anticipated. According to AAA, the nationwide average price for a gallon of gasoline on Wednesday was $3.66, down from 3.667 on Tuesday, and the same as a week ago, despite the springtime surge that generally precedes Memorial Day weekend and the peak driving season.  GasBuddy’s Patrick ..read more

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in a statement on Wednesday that the group is looking forward to the prospect of a partnership with Namibia, the hottest new oil frontier after Guyana, with new discoveries lining up and first production of 2.6 billion barrels planned for 2030.  "We are excited about the potential of the Namibian OPEC partnership and stand ready to offer support at this crucial juncture," Al Ghais said in a pre-recorded message at an international energy conference in Namibia. "We are enthused by the discoveries ..read more

China’s fiscal woes are likely to drag on economies across the Caucasus and Central Asia over the next two years, the World Bank is forecasting.  The Bank’s economic update for 2024-25 says the entire area spanning Europe and Central Asia faces “multiple headwinds,” including China’s “lackluster recovery” and “moderating” commodity prices. “With heightened geopolitical risks and substantial policy uncertainty, investment growth … could weaken further, especially if progress ..read more

China's coal market is poised for a significant uptick in prices, according to fresh insights from the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD). General Manager Han Lei of CCTD's research department highlighted that domestic thermal coal prices have surpassed 800 yuan ($110.41) per metric ton, which is seen by many in the industry as marking the bottom for the year. Current coal market dynamics suggest a trend of stabilization and resurgence in prices. Despite expectations for relatively flat coal output this year compared ..read more

Last October, when we pointed out that China's FX outflows had just hit a whopping $75BN - the single biggest monthly outflow since the 2015 currency devaluation - we concluded that the "unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will "likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months", or in other words, September's biggest FX outflow in years is just the beginning, and very soon - in addition to geopolitics and central banks - the world will also be freaking out about the capital flight out of China ..read more