Stocks may have logged their third winning week in a row last week. But, it was hardly a decisive victory. The effort was losing steam on Friday, and for that matter, none of last week’s daily gains had a great deal of gusto. Namely, the volume behind the advance since October has never been convincing, but it was outright deteriorating as last week wore on. We’ll look at the matter in some detail in a moment. Let’s first look at last week’s little bit of noteworthy economic news and then preview what’s coming this week. Economic Data Analysis A week ago we weren’t anticipating any economic ne ..read more

Stocks may have logged their third winning week in a row last week. But, it was hardly a decisive victory. The effort was losing steam on Friday, and for that matter, none of last week’s daily gains had a great deal of gusto. Namely, the volume behind the advance since October has never been convincing, but it was outright deteriorating as last week wore on. We’ll look at the matter in some detail in a moment. Let’s first look at last week’s little bit of noteworthy economic news and then preview what’s coming this week. Economic Data Analysis A week ago we weren’t anticipating any economic ne ..read more

Happy Derby! As we seek to find the next winner in the greatest 2 minutes in sports on the first Saturday of May, note that the weather is rainy here in central Kentucky though it should be better on Saturday afternoon in Louisville. Let’s start off with an updated table of past Derby winners below, with their speed ratings and final tune-up race. My analysis of past data indicates that horses with 2 strong 100+ speed ratings in preparatory races have a better probability of winning the big race. Derby Winner BRIS Speed Rating Last race (# weeks before Derby ..read more

A tough week turned real bullish real fast on Friday thanks to a poor jobs report for April. Payroll growth came up short of expectations, pushing the unemployment rate up, and leading traders to believe the Fed may be cutting interest rates sooner than expected after all. That’s (perceived as being) bullish for stocks. Still, it might be a bit too soon to come to a sweeping bullish conclusion about the market’s foreseeable future. We’ll show you why below. First though, let’s look at last week’s economic reports. They were mostly not-good, which is why the market did so well for a second week ..read more

A tough week turned real bullish real fast on Friday thanks to a poor jobs report for April. Payroll growth came up short of expectations, pushing the unemployment rate up, and leading traders to believe the Fed may be cutting interest rates sooner than expected after all. That’s (perceived as being) bullish for stocks. Still, it might be a bit too soon to come to a sweeping bullish conclusion about the market’s foreseeable future. We’ll show you why below. First though, let’s look at last week’s economic reports. They were mostly not-good, which is why the market did so well for a second week ..read more

The bulls answered the call last week, pushing firmly back against the prior week’s rout. That is, the previous week’s 3.0% tumble, the S&P 500 bounced 2.7% last week. It’s a much-needed glimmer of hope. Just don’t grow too hopeful too soon. For all the effort, the market didn’t actually snap the selloff that began four weeks back. Last week’s gain may only be a dead-cat bounce, ready to yield to the sellers again. We’ll show you why in a moment. Let’s first run through last week’s biggest economic reports and then look at what’s coming this week. Spoiler alert: Hopes for a rate cut in the ..read more

The bulls answered the call last week, pushing firmly back against the prior week’s rout. That is, the previous week’s 3.0% tumble, the S&P 500 bounced 2.7% last week. It’s a much-needed glimmer of hope. Just don’t grow too hopeful too soon. For all the effort, the market didn’t actually snap the selloff that began four weeks back. Last week’s gain may only be a dead-cat bounce, ready to yield to the sellers again. We’ll show you why in a moment. Let’s first run through last week’s biggest economic reports and then look at what’s coming this week. Spoiler alert: Hopes for a rate cut in the ..read more

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Wow. That was… intense. We knew the market was already under fire headed into last week, having fallen a total of 2.5% over the course of the prior two weeks. The S&P 500 took a hefty 3.0% tumble last week alone though, snapping several important technical support levels in the process. The best thing going for the bulls now is the sheer scope and speed of the selling, which sets the stage for a snapback bounce. We’ll take a detailed look at the action and what’s likely to take shape from here. First, however, let’s run through last week’s biggest economic announcements and preview what’s ..read more

For the second week in a row, stocks suffered losses. And this time around the market was dragged to the brink of implosion… all the way to the brink, but not past it. It’s close though. It’s so close, in fact, that one more bad day could do the trick and push the indexes below key technical floors. We’re not there yet, however. We’re just uncomfortably close. We’ll see how closer we are to the brink in just a moment. Let’s first look at last week’s most important economic news and then preview what’s due this week. Spoiler alert: It’s getting tougher for the Federal Reserve to say it’s planni ..read more