Open access until 21 January 2025 for the paper in JIMF, paper coauthored with Hiro Ito: We re-examine the determinants of current account balances (CAB) and the saving-investment nexus with focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We are in a new age in terms of facing not just economic challenges but also other ..read more

Trend shifted down, but sensitivity up. Figure 1: Log of ratio of vehicle miles traveled to monthly GDP (000’s miles divided by bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR) (blue), and 2000-19 stochastic trend (red). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NHTSA via FRED, SPGMI, NBER, and author’s calculations. Nonoverlapping log differenced q/q monthly GDP regression on log ..read more

Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (top indicators employment and person income) plus monthly GDP from S&P (nee Macroeconomic Advisers nee IHS Markit): Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers ..read more

As measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU (news) for the US (blue), average value 1/20/2021-11/4/2024 (light blue line), average value 11/6/2024- (orange line). Source: policyuncertainty.com accessed 11/30/2024. And we haven’t even heard the word “bleach” yet ..read more

The conventionally used CPI-U is in the middle of the pack. Figure 1: CPI-urban (bold black), CPI-wage earners and clerical (purple), CPI for 2nd income quintile (pink), chained CPI (tan), HICP (light blue), Everyday Price Index (EPI) (green), all not seasonally adjusted, and PCE deflator – market facing, seasonally adjusted (pink), all in logs 2020M01=0 ..read more

A retrospective: Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue, left scale), Wisconsin manufactured exports in mn.2000$ (tan, right scale). Wisconsin nominal exports seasonally adjusted using geometric moving average, deflated using goods export price deflator. Source: BLS, Census, and author’s calculations. Interestingly, national manufacturing employment plateaus at the same time, but does not exhibit the ..read more

I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”. The Russian economy, surprisingly resilient through two-plus years of war and sanctions, has suddenly begun to show serious strains. The ruble is plunging. Inflation is soaring, and President Vladimir Putin told the Russian people this week that there ..read more

GDP, GDO, GDP+: Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ scaled to equal GDP at 2019Q4. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations. Note that none of these series evidences two consecutive quarters of negative growth (GDP evidences one quarter). What about forward looking indicators? Nowcasts indicating continued growth are ..read more

A comparison between CPI, chained CPI, PCE price index, and HICP deflation: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (green), PCE price index – market based deflated (tan), and HICP deflated (red), all in 2019$. Chained CPI, HICP deflated by author using X-13. Source: BLS, BEA, European Commission. Estimated real median ..read more

Forty years ago, I was working for Bob Crandall as an RA at Brookings, on how much the voluntary export restraints (VERs) added to the costs of a typical Japanese imported car. He found that number to be about $820 (a Datsun Stanza was about $6700 in 1981), and a comparable domestically produced car by ..read more