[Ottawa – November 28, 2024] At 39.7 points, the Conservative Party holds a substantive 14-point lead over the second-place Liberals, who are at 25.5 points. The modest gains the Liberals experienced in the days leading up to the U.S. election appear to have evaporated and, while the party has improved slightly since June, the progress is insufficient to challenge a Conservative majority if an election were held tomorrow. Conservative support has edged upward, but the movement is not statistically significant and will bear watching. Meanwhile, the NDP is in third place at 16.8 points and has n ..read more

[Ottawa – November 12, 2024] At 39 points, the Conservative Party is still in a commanding position; however, their massive 22-point lead from a few months ago is now less than half that. At 28 points, the Liberal Party is now clearly in second place, while the NDP is falling backward (17 points ..read more

[Ottawa – November 1, 2024] A new random probability poll of 1,340 Canadians shows the Conservative Party maintaining a strong 12.6-point lead. Whereas these results would yield a majority government if there were an election tomorrow, this lead is significantly smaller than the 24-point lead they enjoyed just four months ago. Whether this trajectory continues is unclear at this time but it does represent a potentially significant shift ..read more

[Ottawa – September 24, 2024] In the lead-up to a confidence motion in parliament following the collapse of the supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP, we have just completed a national survey of voting intentions to update the state of the voter landscape at this moment. Overall, there have been no profound shifts and the Conservative Party remains in a position that would yield a comfortable majority if a non-confidence motion was passed. There are, however, some very interesting movements underneath this broadly stable voter landscape ..read more

[Ottawa - September 10, 2024] In this analysis, we look at five key indicators of the Canadian mood: Economic outlook National and federal direction Global outlook Attitudes to immigration National identity Each of these five cases, the public outlook is plumbing record lows ..read more

The CGAI Podcast Network · The Global Exchange: What Preoccupies Canadians in 2023 ..read more

[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been in the high teens and reached 24 points in June. The stability and magnitude of this lead pointed to a pretty certain path to a commanding majority government. While the Conservative lead continues to be sizable, the past few weeks have seen the largest decline since Mr. Poilievre's ascendance as leader. While the Conservative lead is still comfortable, the massive advantage of 24 points in June is no ..read more

Misinformation has proven to be among the most polarizing topics in 21st-century society, creating negative to severe consequences like poor decision-making and even the loss of human lives. But what does misinformation mean in a research context and how does misinformation impact the work of public opinion researchers? What can researchers do to navigate the future with improved accuracy, data ethics and techniques that harness a single version of truth? In this episode, host Arundati Dandapani, MLitt, CAIP, CIPP/C, CIPM, speaks with Amelia Burke-Garcia, PhD and Frank Graves to dissect and un ..read more

On June 21, 2024, Frank Graves was awarded the degree of Doctor of Laws, honoris causa, from Carleton University in recognition of a distinguished career in public opinion and policy research and outstanding contributions to research-based policy making. Below is his convocation address to Carleton University's 161st convocation ceremony ..read more

Are we moving from ordered to epistemic populism? The Conservative Party enjoys a healthy lead of 11 points over the second-place Liberals but this is significantly lower than the 19-point lead we found in our fall update. At 37 points, the Conservatives lead everywhere outside Quebec. The Liberals trail at 26 per cent ..read more