Last update concluded:   So, this is a do-or-die moment for bulls and bears. If bulls could turn it back up over this week's high, then they could have a bull nest underway and launch a strong rally. If bears can keep pushing lower and break 4953, then they will be getting into the ballpark of a possible impulsive decline, which could signal a larger trend change. The upcoming sessions could thus be important for setting the intermediate tone of the market.  And the market's gone nowhere since then, largely ignoring Fed Chair Jerr Ohm Pow Well's statement that there had been a ..read more

Since last update, SPX rallied up into its first target/inflection zone, then the inflection zone did its job and SPX topped right at the "bear: c" label that I'd placed on the chart on April 26.  I didn't even need to move it for today's update: So, this is a do-or-die moment for bulls and bears.  If bulls could turn it back up over this week's high, then they could have a bull nest underway and launch a strong rally.  If bears can keep pushing lower and break 4953, then they will be getting into the ballpark of a possible impulsive decline, which could signal a larger trend ..read more

Last update expected SPX would continue higher on Friday/Monday into its upside target zones, and SPX came within literal pennies of the first of those targets (5115-40). Accordingly, there's nothing to add to Friday's update, or any of the last few updates, for that matter.  The annotation is unchanged from 4/26: In conclusion, today's one of those pleasant days where I don't have to scrutinize every squiggle, and there's no material change to anything we've discussed recently.  Trade safe. p.s.-- I've used today's title at least once previously, maybe twice.  And I reser ..read more

We really only need one chart today, and it's this one: Last update concluded:   In conclusion, bulls have so far turned the market back up where it was expected and where they needed to. Bigger picture, bulls probably continue to have the advantage unless bears can reverse this and form at least one more new low, to give the decline a more impulsive appearance. And there's really nothing else to add since then, other than to note that we'll probably enter the ABC inflection zone either today or Monday.  Again, though, as I also wrote last update, "bears should be ready in t ..read more

The last couple updates suggested that a larger bounce could occur any time in SPX, and here we are.  The chart below further elucidates the landscape for both bulls and bears: Now, we can't rule out bears making a stand sometime soon and turning things lower in order to create an impulsive decline.  But right now, all we have in actuality is three waves down, so there's nothing "deterministic" about this pattern and bears should be ready in the event the market elects to disappoint them. COMPQ is in a similar position, but (more clearly than SPX) seems like it probably "needs" ano ..read more

Last update ended with (in part):  In conclusion, SPX captured Target 2, good for around 200 points of profit for readers. It would look a little better if it were to head at least a bit deeper into the 4970-5005 zone, but that's not required and if that's ALL OF 3/C down, a big bounce is possible any time. SPX did indeed head a bit deeper into the target zone, and even exceeded it slightly.  That's about as far as I can get us for the moment and I now have something approaching a neutral stance, at least from an analytical standpoint.  A big bounce is indeed possible from here ..read more

In the prior update, I wrote that I expected SPX to capture Target 2 (4970-5005, from 4/12) and yesterday, it dropped down to 5001, capturing that target.  The immediate question now is whether wave v is close to being complete -- or if it will extend.   After that, the next question is as discussed last update: As we can see on the chart above, to complete C/3 down, bears would need another new low, which I'm currently inclined to suspect they'll get after a bounce. That would complete red v, which would complete THREE waves down [4/19 Note:  We are here now, at three ..read more

Since last update, SPX captured its downside target of 5070-90 from April 12: As we can see on the chart above, to complete C/3 down, bears would need another new low, which I'm currently inclined to suspect they'll get after a bounce.  That would complete red v, which would complete THREE waves down, so from there, a rally to new ATHs would not be off the table.  For bears to demonstrate more control, they would then need a bounce in a larger 4th wave, followed by another new low, at which point, we could conceivably label the entire wave off the ATH as an impulse.  The alte ..read more

Last update noted it was bears' ball "for now," and I think we can call that a hit, but today we're going to examine both sides of the trade. To do that, let's start with BKX: NYA is in a similar position: SPX has kept alive "Option a" from a couple updates ago: Finally, the TLT update I promised on Friday (on the Forum): In conclusion, because of BKX and NYA, we can no longer be 100% certain that it's still bears' ball (I anticipated this potential, which is why I included "for now" in the statement last update).  That said, it feels like bears may have more in the tank ..read more

Last update discussed two options for SPX, and it appears that SPX choose the first of those two options: As discussed on Wednesday, both of those options were ultimately bearish in the event of a break of 5146 -- which means that the "bounce" option was corrective.  Which in turn means that it (the bounce) doesn't need to reach the 5230 threshold -- since corrective waves are not bound by rules, targets can be simply described as "most commonly, here's what happens," but being against the larger trend, corrections can (and often do) fall short. So, presuming bears hold 5257, we may b ..read more