CurrencyThoughts
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CurrencyThoughts is a stand-alone independent advisory service that integrates all global financial markets and the macroeconomic trends that make them tick. Larry Greenberg, a veteran currency economist brings forex news from many places all over the world, and in-depth analysis of current events.
CurrencyThoughts
7h ago
The National Bank of Ukraine‘s policy interest rate was cut to 13.5% from 14.5%, having previously been reduced by 50 basis points in March and 10 percentage points in the second half of 2023. From June 2022 to July 2023, the rate had been held at 25.0%. A statement from the NBU explained that today’s ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
7h ago
U.S. stock futures were down 0.5-1.0% just ahead of the release of U.S. first-quarter GDP. The data were expected to show strong enough and persistent demand to make Federal Reserve officials hesitant to cut interest rates. Elsewhere, a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan began today, which while not expected to result in a ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1d ago
A recent concern had been that delayed Fed easing would particularly hurt coming earnings in the tech sector, but first quarter earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla’s share price leaped over 10% in after-hours trading yesterday, and the Nasdaq futures shows a 0.7% overnight advance at this moment. Asian equities closed up 2.4% in Japan, 2.0 ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
2d ago
After 23 games, the N.Y. Yankees have fallen out of first place in their division for the first time. It’s still early times, with roughly seven-eighths of the regular season yet to be played, and the team’s overall 15-8 record is more than respectable. The pitching staff is outperforming expectations and is one of only ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
2d ago
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered 50 basis points to 7.75% in a continuing normalization of monetary policy. The latest and expected reduction brings the cumulative decreases to 300 basis points since end-2024 and 525 basis points since October. Consumer price inflation in Hungary has receded from as much as 25.7 ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
2d ago
Net overnight movements in the dollar were marginal. Ten-year sovereign debt yields increased six basis points in the U.K., five basis points in Italy and by four basis points in the United States, Germany, France and Spain. Continuing disappointment at the Chinese government’s macroeconomic stimulus was reflected in an additional 0.7% drop in the Shanghai ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
5d ago
Central Banks: Monetary policies of China, Hungary, Japan, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia are being reviews. Bank of Japan will be publishing Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. BOJ Governor Ueda holds a press conference. Other central bank officials speaking publicly next week include Swiss National Bank President Jordan; European Central Bank President Lagarde and VP ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1w ago
The dollar and U.S. equities are little changed this Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 index closed down 1.3%, but share prices rose 2.1% in China and 1.6% in Taiwan. European stocks are up, too. Bitcoin’s price plunged 4.4% overnight, extending its drop over the past five weeks to 17%. WTI oil is down 1.2%, but gold is ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1w ago
The mounting relief late in 2023 and early this year that monetary easing happens sooner rather than later has largely dissipated in the face of uncooperative data. To be sure, economic data rarely move in a strictly linear fashion, and monetary policies are guided not by single points of data but rather on the basis ..read more
CurrencyThoughts
1w ago
The dominant theme of the first half of April has been the retreat in hopes that a cycle of Fed interest rate cuts might commence as early as June. This shift is being driven by data pointing to stalled U.S. disinflation and stronger-than-assumed economic growth. Monday’s menu of U.S. data includes Stronger-than-expected retail sales that ..read more