Hoist with his own petard
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
6h ago
A couple of more observations from me on todays @IpsosUK / @britishfuture immigration polling and why I think it’s a problematic issue for Cons. 1/ We know it’s a highly salient issue for Con supporters /2019 Cons they’re really unhappy re boats / numbers pic.twitter.com/KaKGmAS9SM — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 25, 2024 When you ask about whether Rwanda will achieve the desired impact the public are highly sceptical. Amongst 2019 Cons – 50% say unlikely it’ll reduce numbers trying to cross – 57% unlikely to provide value for money – 64% unlikely to be implemented by end of 2024 ..read more
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We may need to revise our summer plans
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
17h ago
Is a summer election becoming more likely? Sources have always insisted to me that those around the PM wanted to go for a November election, but they are now talking about what happens if the PM faces a confidence vote after May elections… 1/ https://t.co/1NKv27qbdn — Anushka Asthana (@AnushkaAsthana) March 27, 2024 One insider said that there had been a shift from thinking there was still a glimmer of hope towards accepting more fully that defeat is coming, and so what that defeat looks like and how to handle it has become more key. Some like @Peston have suggested PM could just quit 3 ..read more
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The triple lock is here to stay
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
23h ago
The Tories have pledged to keep the state pension triple lock in place if they win the next election – 72% of Britons think the triple lock should remain in place (including a majority across all generations)https://t.co/Cy60U7qpqg pic.twitter.com/g4WuDEXnLg — YouGov (@YouGov) March 26, 2024 I think any political party that tries to change/end the triple lock will see a response to Mrs May’s dementia tax. TSE ..read more
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The worst appointment since Incitatus
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
2d ago
Come back Lee Anderson all is forgiven. https://t.co/ZGS6peJ8ul — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2024 Another MP says: "I wondered why he’d been so sycophantic of late." A former minister adds: "We all did." Another former minister messages: "Demented." — Cat Neilan (@CatNeilan) March 26, 2024 "He knows something isn't going right and he is wondering why." Rishi Sunak has become "quite sympathetic" to a possible leadership change after losing two cabinet ministers in one day, Tim Montgomerie tells #TimesRadio @montie | @JPonPolitics pic.twitter.com/a6JrcBnWDN — Times Radio (@TimesRadio) M ..read more
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David Cameron’s maxim about Twitter proved right once again
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
2d ago
FACT: London under Labour has become a crime capital of the world ? pic.twitter.com/IKoOFHwHvo — Conservatives (@Conservatives) March 25, 2024 Tory mayor race ad shows New York instead of London https://t.co/LUiQur2uaf — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) March 26, 2024 NEW: The Tories have been forced to delete a Labour attack video about crime in London after it featured a scene showing chaos at Penn Station in … er New York. pic.twitter.com/NQm6EA5tNy — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) March 25, 2024 Tory source says the video and picture are being corrected. — Kevin Schofield (@KevinASc ..read more
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The enthusiasm gap
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
2d ago
Of course, with 58% unfavourable towards the Conservatives maybe it doesnt matter https://t.co/1K63vkJhwQ — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) March 22, 2024 The above findings appear to confirm the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose them. What strikes me is the lack of enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour might have some betting implications in so far it might lead to a Labour victory but not the massive landslide victory the voting intention polls indicate but a more modest majority. TSE ..read more
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Disgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
3d ago
BREAKING: Rishi Sunak faces new by-election nightmare as suspended Tory MP Scott Benton announces resignation – by @ashcowburn https://t.co/oxJpqYNhP3 — Lizzy Buchan (@LizzyBuchan) March 25, 2024 With a May general election a non starter and Scott Benton accelerating the process it appears we will have another by-election soon on the English Riviera that is Blackpool. I cannot see anything other than a thumping Labour victory. The only question is can Reform finish ahead of the Tories? TSE ..read more
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We need to talk about gender
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
3d ago
Wow. Hard-right Reform party has gone ahead of the Conservatives among men in the latest polling from YouGov pic.twitter.com/CZAaDJoMaD — John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 22, 2024 For those quibbling over "hard right" (I deliberately didn’t say "far right", which gets ridiculously overused imo), I’m just distinguishing from mainstream right. Happy to clarify: I don’t think Reform is far right, and "populist right" (HT @ProfTimBale @CasMudde) is better. — John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 22, 2024 A poll by YouGov has shown that Reform, the descendant of the Brexit Party ..read more
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It’s not easy being Green
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
4d ago
8% for the Greens seems too high to me (and it's not just with Opinium… YouGov and People Polling also tend to report quite high numbers). — Will Jennings (@drjennings) March 23, 2024 This rather highlights the tension between pollsters' 'predictive' adjustments (such as reallocation of DKs) and these sorts of dynamics. — Will Jennings (@drjennings) March 23, 2024 As Professor Jennings notes the Green share of the vote doesn’t attract as much comment as Reform but this could be important at the next election. I am working on the assumption that the Scottish Greens will stand down in most ..read more
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It’s like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic
PoliticalBetting
by TSE
4d ago
Only two more letters of no confidence needed to oust Rishi Sunak as prime minister, former cabinet minister claims https://t.co/cyWF0CoX34 — LBC (@LBC) March 23, 2024 If Sir Simon Clarke is correct then we could see a vote of confidence in Sunak very soon (which I expect him to win). One of the factors that should help Sunak survive is this poll from Opinium which shows the Tories are going to be experience their own Battle of Adrianople at the next general election no matter who leads them with only Penny Mordaunt achieving a better result than Sunak. This poll also confirms that if the ..read more
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