Anyone who lives on or near a hurricane-prone coast is undoubtedly familiar with the track forecast cone or "cone of uncertainty" which has been produced by the National Hurricane Center since 2002.  It begins as a point at the current position of a tropical cyclone and expands to show the potential position of the storm's center in the next five days. It is often called the "cone of uncertainty" because the further out in time you go, the more uncertain the forecast becomes... and it tends to look like a cone! (By the way, "tropical cyclone" is a blanket term that refers to tr ..read more

During its annual meeting, a "hurricane committee" within the World Meteorological Organization decided today that no names would be retired following the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.  This is the first season with no name retirements since 2014 (there were 17 from 2015-2022)!  So... how does this naming and retiring work? Tropical cyclone tracks color-coded by intensity during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.  Landfall locations are denoted by colored dots along the track. The underlying reason for assigning names to tropical cyclones is that it makes communicat ..read more

This post marks the end of my 28th year writing these updates on tropical Atlantic activity.  During that time, I have written approximately 1410 posts spanning 481 tropical cyclones, 212 hurricanes, 97 major hurricanes, and 53 retired storm names. I know some of you reading this have been following along the entire time, but whether you've been reading these posts for 28 days or 28 years, I truly appreciate your continued interest! Tracks of all tropical and subtropical cyclones during 2023. Each storm's peak intensity, lowest central pressure, and total Accumulated Cyclone Energy ..read more

https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/11/formation-chances-drop-keeping-atlantic.html ..read more

Of the two disturbances I mentioned in Monday's update, only the one in the Caribbean (Invest 97L) is still of interest. Today it's centered south of Haiti in the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to continue moving westward. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 20% probability of formation within the next two days and 40% within the next seven days.  However, on its current trajectory it will run into central America this weekend. Models have become much less bullish on its development and intensification.  The European model ensemble barely finds anything trackable ..read more

There are two areas of interest in the Atlantic that could become tropical cyclones in the coming week.  The first is near the northern Bahamas and the second is just south of Puerto Rico.  The one near the Bahamas (Invest 96L) has a hostile environment ahead of it, but the one in the eastern Caribbean (should soon be tagged as Invest 97L) is one to keep a close eye on.  The next -- and final -- two names on this year's regular list are Vince and Whitney.    The discussion of Invest 96L will be very brief.  It's already encountering drier air and stronger ver ..read more

Since my previous post on Thursday, Tammy reached Category 1 hurricane intensity prior to its approach to the Leeward Islands, but the eyewall passed just barely to the east of the islands.  It has been tracking northwest -> north since then, and unfortunately, that enormous uncertainty in the track forecast I pointed out on Thursday has not gotten any closer to being reduced. As of Monday morning, Tammy is a Category 1 hurricane centered about 250 miles north of the Virgin Islands and it's moving north at 7 mph.  But by mid-week, models diverge significantly on the track for ..read more

Invest 94L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Tammy on Wednesday afternoon; Tammy is the 20th named storm of this very active season.  It is forecast to become the season's 7th hurricane on Saturday as it passes over or very near the Leeward Islands. As of Thursday morning, a tropical storm watch covers islands from Barbados up through Anguilla; the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are for Guadeloupe.  These will definitely evolve, so stay tuned to NHC for the latest.  [link to map for a refresher on the names of the islands in the Lesser Antilles] A useful product f ..read more

"Cabo Verde season" is the portion of Atlantic hurricane season that refers to when easterly waves trek across Africa and emerge over the Atlantic Ocean near Cabo Verde... and a small percentage of them go on to become long-lived hurricanes.  The vast majority of the most infamous hurricanes are of Cabo Verde pedigree.  This season doesn't have exact bounds, but is generally mid-August through early October.  The large-scale environment tends to be too hostile for those easterly waves to develop before and after that timeframe.  So, the point of this introduction is that i ..read more

Tropical Depression 17 formed on Saturday morning and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Philippe shortly afterward... and Tropical Storm Rina just formed on Thursday morning.  Both are located east of the Lesser Antilles and most likely will not affect land.  They are rather close together and in this satellite loop, it's even hard to tell them apart!  (Philippe is west of Rina) Philippe has been hovering as a mid-range tropical storm all week, and its future is very interesting and uncertain... much more than normal.  This example is from the American global model (GFS) e ..read more